Lies, damned lies and government statistics

THE objectivity of government figures has been called into question this week amid allegations of spin and misrepresentation.

The most recent case surrounds the removal of a post by the House of Commons Library which allegedly criticised government claims regarding a fall in waiting times at hospital accident and emergency units. According to some reports analysis by the think tank disproved assertions made by David Cameron during Prime Ministers Questions on Wednesday.

It accused the Prime Minister of using a "simplistic reading" of statistics to justify his claim that "average waiting time" in NHS hospitals had fallen from 77 minutes under Labour to just 30 minutes.

The analysis stated: "The data does not show that the average time in A&E has fallen since 2008. Rather, the typical total time in A&E has risen (for admitted patients, at least), and the typical time to treatment has remained static.

"It is welcome that the rich data on the amount of time patients spend in A&E is becoming part of the wider political debate on the NHS. But in order for it to be useful and informative, it must be discussed in a way which fully respects the data."

The post has since been taken down and replaced with a message which said: "The blog post 'Have A&E waiting times fallen?' has been removed by the House of Commons Library as it does not meet our expected standards of impartiality.

"A revised post will be uploaded as soon as possible."

Despite its removal Labour ministers have been quick to seize upon its content, describing Mr Cameron's use of the statistics as "cynical spin".

An accounting for Labour leader Ed Miliband's own use of facts and figures has also been requested this week by the Conservative MP Matt Hancock after he claimed that "independent experts say four fifths of all new private sector jobs created since 2010 are in London".

In a direct letter to Mr Miliband Mr Hancock said: "The statistic you make reference to is from an out of date Centre for Cities report which only looked at the regional labour market between 2010 and 2012.

The most recent, unadjusted ONS statistics for the last four years (Q1 2010 to Q1 2014) suggest that London has accounted for less than 1 in 4 net additional private sector jobs created (21.7%).

"I know that you would not want to inadvertently mislead the British public into believing that the employment situation is worse than it actually is.

"Indeed since you appear to have put this erroneous statistic at the heart of your new policy launch, I believe that it would be only proper for you to issue a full and public correction, and in doing so, accept that our long-term economic plan is helping to create jobs across Britain."

Earlier this week it was revealed by the BBC that 16 of the last 47 complaints issued by the United Kingdom Statistics Authority over misuse of data by the government had been sent to the Department of Work and Pensions.

It is not the first time revelations of misleading information have plagued Ian Duncan Smith's department. In March the Commons work and pensions committee also criticised the DWP for shortcomings in the handling of claims for Personal Independence Payments (PIP).

At the time Dame Anne Begg MP, the committee chair, said: "Statistics should be used to shed light on policy implementation, not to prop up established views or feed preconceptions."

Manipulation of data has always been known to occur in politics. The old adage "lies, damned lies and statistics" is well founded. With so much access to information nowadays, however, politicians may find it harder to use massaged data to demonstrate a point to an increasingly cynical electorate.