Another final countdown for Greece

AFTER months of wrangling, recriminations and negotiations Greece has being given its final deadline by Eurozone ministers to pay up or get out.
Following Sunday's referendum, which saw millions of Greeks flock to the polls to vote Oxi, or No, to austerity measures demanded by the Eurozone countries it was clear that the long awaited end was nigh. Tuesday's meeting of Eurozone ministers merely confirmed what the markets had already suspected.
Final deadlines for the Greek government have become something akin to a Rolling Stones farewell tour, we have seen them before and stopped believing the flyers. This time, however, it seems almost certain that the Greeks will have to make some drastic decisions or genuinely risk Grexit.
Following the failure in Tuesday of either side of this ongoing saga to reach a conclusion European Union President, and Prime Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk warned that unless Greek officials presented a genuine and workable proposal to stay in the euro by Friday morning it would face bancruptcy.
The deadline comes ahead of am emergency meeting of all EU leaders On Sunday to discuss the possibility of Greece's exit  from the Eurozone. While this exit may not necessarily mean leaving the EU Sunday's meeting shows how seriously its possible exit from the Eurozone is being seen by member states both in and out of the single currency and its potential for Europe as a whole.
A bankrupt country within the EU would pose a risk for the bloc as a whole,  not just the Eurozone. Greek history shows a country where financial insecurity rapidly turns to domestic insecurity. Riots against austerity measures precipitated the rise of Syriza, yet by the standards of Greece's own reasonably recent history these were mild issues compared to Military Juntas and dictatorships. For European Ministers on Sunday the question of a destabilising financial crisis on one of its members and what it will mean for the security of the bloc as a whole will be a real issue.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has already made it clear that Greek debt will not be forgiven. As the holder of by far the largest single portion of Greek debt, both as a contributor to European bailouts and domestic loans, Germany may hold the balance of Greece's future. France, which holds the second largest portion, wants a solution, however President Hollande is unlikely to push against the formidable Mrs Merkel too hard on this issue if he feels that the stakes become too much.
A possibility may be for a restructuring of Greek debt alowing for a longer period of repayments at lower levels. The International Monetary Fund has pushed for this form of a solution, having already had its debts defaulted on however this seems to be more focused on the IMF desperately wanting any chance of recouping its losses than supporting Greece.
For now the sword of Damacles hangs perilously over Greece. The thread which holds it is the new Greek Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos. Already seen as more willing to negotiate than his predecessor and a safer hand on the economy Mr Tsakalotos' first week will be a trying one.

Leaving Europe is a bad breakup we don't need

The future of Europe is one of those great discussions where it doesn't appear to actually matter if someone knows what is going on for them to make a contribution.
This is a good thing otherwise I would obviously be unable to wrIte about it.
In recent weeks the call from Conservative MP's to leave the EU, or at least calling for such unacceptable changes to the treaty agreement that they leave little other choice, has grown to more than 100. The Conservatives' For Britain group has appeared in a ghastly parliamentary parody of a bad boyfriend deliberately making unreasonable demand in the hopes that his girlfriend will break up with him and leave him looking like the injured party.
At the time of writing British MP's are debating the European Union Referendum Bill, the legislation required for the much heralded in out referendum to take place in 2017. As forgone conclusions go this was a safe bet. Everyone knows that it will pass. There is just too much pressure for a referendum to take place for it not to. It isn't whether we have a referendum now which matters, it is how we vote in that referendum.
The EU is far from perfect and in many ways could do with significant reform. This won't happen just because Britain stamps it's feet and cries though. It won't happen quickly and it most certainly won't happen in one go. The eurosceptics pushing for a renegotiation of the UK membership, supported by a number of disgruntled failed cabinet ministers looking to put the boot in,  know this. If they don't then they have either deluded  themselves or they really should not be allowed close to the debate. They know that the EU cannot change just because Britain says so. Likewise it won't even consider changing when there is a chance that the UK could leave anyway. International politics is a game and relies on states playing it in order to maximise their own preferences and gains.
The question which should be being debated in parliament is what is in it for everyone else. If we were serious about requesting reforms which would ensure that we stayed in the EU then we should be looking at how other states perceive their positions and what the relative gains will be. At the moment Britain had offered nothing in return for getting everything it wants.
An additional issue, and one which seems to be lost on many eurosceptics, is that leaving the EU will diminish Britain's absolute gains on the international stage. At present the United States sees the UK as a gateway into dealing with the rest of Europe. With its exit Britain's special relationship will sour quickly. This is of course something which will please the more nationalistic elements of the debate and what they are hoping for. The problem is that as the UK loses a great deal of support from America's declining hegemony it will lose its importance on the international stage.
This split will lead to a loss of trade which on its own could have been absorbed. Combined with the loss of trade and resources from Europe however it will prove crippling. Trade with China, based in no small measure with an understanding of Britain's ties to the US and its access to the EU economy, will not take long to dry up.
Britain is no longer an empire and it seems that too many people have forgotten this. We live and work in a globalised networked society. An EU exit has only one possible outcome for the UK, economic isolation and collapse. Better the long crawl to reform than the short sprint to crisis.

Boris may be UKIP's undoing

BORIS Johnson's unsurprising announcement yesterday that he was planning to run for Parliament in 2015 will be a heavy blow to UKIP's ambitions.

Mr Johnson's revelation has been expected by political observers and is sure to cause much debate in the corridors of Westminster. It is the impact it will have on the growing threat from the United Kingdom Independence Party which may be the most important factor in his election campaign though.

Speaking to an audience at the Bloomberg headquarters yesterday Mr Johnson said: I can't endlessly go on dodging these questions.

"So let me put it this way. I haven't got any particular seat lined up but I do think in all probability I will try to find somewhere to stand in 2015.

"It may all go wrong but I think the likelihood is I am going to have to give it a crack."

While many in the media have latched onto the idea that this could be the London Mayor's opening gambit in a leadership bid he was quick to dismiss any immediate plans, telling BBC's James Landale: "I think it's highly unlikely that that will happen because there's no vacancy. I think David Cameron has been a brilliant prime minister."

Later clarifying his position on the Radio 4's World at One programme: "When David Cameron finally steps down, in 2030 or whenever, it may be that there's a vacancy, but it will probably be filled by a person who's a teenager now."

It was his eight point plan on Europe, however, which could see Mr Johnson's real achievement as an opportunity for the Conservative Party to draw back some of the voters they had lost to UKIP.

The proposals, laid out in a report  written by his chief economic adviser, Gerard Lyons, clearly state that leaving the European Union could have detrimental effect on Britain's financial institutions, while still opening the door for greater reforms.

"There would be some considerable uncertainty," the report said. "Some may view it as a liberating experience and be positive from the start but the likelihood is that the bulk of the economic, business and financial community would view it as a great unknown. For many aspects of the London economy, the day after any no decision in the referendum would be little different in economic terms from before, especially for those focused on the domestic economy. The financial market impact, however, could be very different."

An eight point agenda specifies the areas which Mr Johnson would look for reforms in, something which UKIP may find brings more moderate eurosceptics back to the Tories.

The key points are:

Scrap social and environmental legislation

Scrap the Common Agriculture Policy

Put justice and home affairs back as an intergovernmental competence

Strike out the provision for ever closer union

A yellow card system for national parliaments

Managed migration so that Britain has greater control over immigration

Completion of the single market in services.

It is Mr Johnson's popularity among the electorate which could provide the fatal blow though. UKIP leader Nigel Farage has relied on his bluff and bluster as a common man to win over voters. In the face of Mr Johnson's carefully staged bumbling buffoonery he may find that he has a losing hand.

A recent ComRes poll placed Mr Johnson on 41 per cent of voter popularity, the most popular British politician, compared to Mr Farage's 26 per cent.

"There is a kind of peasants’ revolt going on, a jacquerie. From Dublin to Lublin, from Portugal to Pomerania, the pitchfork-wielding populists are converging on the Breydel building in Brussels – drunk on local hooch and chanting nationalist slogans and preparing to give the federalist machinery a good old kicking with their authentically folkloric clogs," the Mayor of London wrote in his Telegraph column while describing the rise of UKIP, and other anti-Europe parties. If elected he may now find that he is the Conservatives key weapon in winning back those very same peasants he was once so quick to dismiss. 

Strong arming Europe risks British interests

BRITISH Prime Minister has signalled that he is prepared to take on Europe once more as parliament debates limiting the powers of the European Court of Human Rights.

Following his humiliating defeat over the election of Jean Claude Juncker as the head of the European Commission Mr Cameron has seemed determined to demonstrate his strength in defending British rights in the bloc.

The bill, which Mr Cameron claims would 'reassert British sovereignty' could become his most contentious battle to date. Having loaded his cabinet with eurosceptics this week it seems as though it is a battle which he has no intention of backing down from.

If successful it could lead to Britain's expulsion from the Council of Europe, something which opponents of the bill could precipitate a forced withdrawal from the European Union.

Former Attorney General Dominic Grieves, who was replaced as part of Mr Cameron's reshuffle earlier this week, has voiced his concerns of the move, reported by the BBC as saying it could be a "legal car crash with a built-in time delay."

The proposal comes shortly after Mr Cameron helped push through emergency legislation to circumvent a European Court of Justice ruling on the holding of personal data. The speed with which the Data Retention and Investigatory Powers Bill has been rushed through parliament has worried some peers in the House of Lords.

Labour peer Baroness Kennedy of the Shaws, a QC and civil liberties campaigner, was reported as saying: "It is a serious abuse of Parliament, and the use of emergency procedures to enact laws that are controversial and have significant impact on individual rights is happening too often."

Meanwhile Mr Cameron's campaign to have newly appointed EU commissioner Lord Hill allocated one of the top spots as discussions on candidates stalled yesterday.

For Mr Cameron taking a strong stance on Europe is key to his election strategy for May 2015. In the wake of losses to the anti-Europe United Kingdom Independence Party in elections earlier this year he is in a desperate race to regain ground. With so much still to be debated in Europe he may find that by rushing legislation through he misses the long term effects on British interests. 

Europe needs to look to future before it runs out of fuel over Russia

EUROPE faces a looming energy crisis as reserves of fossils fuels reach a critical point. According to research conducted by the Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University the UK has less than five years worth of coal and three years of gas remaining from its domestic supply. The situation is even worse for France and Italy which could run out of fossil fuels within a year.

The United Kingdom is already reaching its highest levels of dependence since 1976. The news is likely to push this figure up as officials attempt to maintain what little resources the country still has. Based the data, however, large areas of Europe will be entirely reliant on foreign sources of fuel within the next five years.

With Russia’s supplies looking set to last for the next 50 years it may be the best source of supply to keep the lights on. While the West pushes for increased sanctions against Russian officials in response to the crisis in Ukraine it seems likely that they will come to nothing. President Putin’s government looks set to hold all the cards in the on-going gamesmanship between nations as Europe looks towards them for their energy needs.

Europe’s dependency on Russian gas and coal is already on a dramatic rise, with its own domestic supply about to run out this rise will only continues. As much as Europe may wish to provide support for Ukraine and demonstrate its condemnation of Russian aggression it may find that its own domestic needs start to take precedence.

Britain is already looking to other sources to prevent Russia having a stranglehold on the country. Having witnessed its gas supply declining over a sustained period it is sourcing the majority of its foreign supply from Norway. If Europe wants to ensure that it is not held over the proverbial fuel barrel then it must also start to find alternative suppliers for its coal supply.

Meanwhile the British government is placing its hope in renewable energy. A spokesman from the Department of Energy and Climate Change stated: “The UK is one of the most energy secure countries in the world thanks to the combination of our own reserves, our diverse sources of imported energy and our focus on increasing clean, home-grown energy in the UK - which includes nuclear, renewables and carbon capture and storage. 

 "As well as attracting record investment into our energy security since 2010, the UK is leading globally on energy security, particularly through the G7 which has agreed to take global action to improve energy security, and in getting a deal in the EU to cut carbon emissions by 40% by 2030."

Based on figures from the same department, however, renewable energy only accounted for 15.5 per cent of overall energy consumption by quarter two in 2013. Despite being a 60 per cent rise from 2012 if Britain is rely on its renewable energy to cover its imminent shortfall then it has a long way to go.

 

A likely source, to ensure security within Europe, could be Germany, which according to statistics has approximately 250 years worth of coal left, five times as much as Russia. With Britain becoming increasing Eurosceptic, however, it must now be looking at the long term consequences of distancing itself from its European neighbours.

 

The rise of the right

AS EUROPE gears up for the May 22^nd European Elections the rise of right wing politics has become increasingly noticeable. This is not isolated to the European Union though.

In America the Tea Party Movement has made inroads into mainstream politics. The United Australia Party may not be seeing the gains of some right wing parties, however, it is starting to have an impact on the political establishment. Despite, or possibly because of, being led by a comedian Beppo Grillo’s Five Star Movement in Italy has surged forward, challenging the old guard of the Democratic Party and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia. Nowhere seems immune from the politics of fear these groups play upon.

It was only a few short years ago that groups such as the American Tea Party Movement, a group which United Kingdom Independence Leader, Nigel Farage, has revelled in being compared to, were seen as fringe and dismissible. In the current political environment they are starting to pose a problem for the main political parties.

In America and Britain it seems unlikely that the establishment could be overturned by these groups. In 2015 UKIP may gain a couple of seats, this would be a far cry from the number they would need to put them in a position of serious power though. The threat they pose is by splitting the vote of the more moderate parties and diverting the debate away from areas where it needs to be focused.

For countries such as Italy and Germany, where coalition governments are more frequent than in the US and Britain, these parties can have a genuine influence on the way the country is run. For groups such as Tea Party or UKIP, however, they are fighting against an entrenched establishment where it is a near certainty that one of two parties will be in power.

This has not stopped them from shouting their causes from the rooftops, however. It is perhaps even more of incentive to create ever more outrageous and right wing agendas for these groups than ones which know they may have a chance of power, and therefore would have to meet their manifesto pledges.

UKIP has claimed that they will fight back against unlimited immigration from the European Union, while failing to address how they will do this, or exactly how far reaching the levels of immigration will be. In its EU election manifesto for example UKIP claims that the Office of National Statistics estimates from 2010 that the UK population will rise by 3 million by 2020 through immigration. The ONS actually forecasts a growth of 4.9million, of which 56 per cent would be from ‘natural increase’.

Additional figures provided by UKIP also fail to take into account the rate of emigration from Britain by naturalised citizens. The same story is repeated in America with the Tea Party Movement. Statistics are taken out of context, or fabricated. Both groups use volume and self proclaimed righteous anger ahead of genuine debate and solution.

In part this rise of the right wing has come about from the groups themselves. An increase in communications technology has made it easier for them to reach the electorate, and by repeating the same phrases enough they have instilled them into the minds of people as fact.

An increasing level of fear and disillusionment in the system has given them the crack to force themselves into. Membership of the more mainstream political parties has diminished over the years, with approximately only 1 per cent of the UK belonging to a party,  as people lose faith in the process. Fear of terrorism and crime is also on the increase, which gives certain right wing elements the fuel they need to feed the fire of xenophobic attitudes.

On May 22^nd the British electorate, and others across Europe, will have their say for who represents them in the European Union. For right wing groups the world over it will be seen as a test of whether volume and propaganda has swayed the people over debate and solutions.