Clean sweep for Cameron

David Cameron's highly anticipated cabinet reshuffle is starting to looking more like a clearing of the old guard than a change for the better. 

Just as Tony Blair tried to reinvent his party into New Labour Mr Cameron's changes are being seen by some analysts as a clean sweep to try and change the party and recoup ground after recent humiliating losses to UKIP and over Europe.

The two most notable scalps to step down are Ken Clark and William Hague.

Known eurosceptic Phillip Hammond is expected to leave his post as defence secretary, leaving space for Ian Duncan Smith to move out of the Department for Work and Pensions, where he has had a controversial time as the minister.

Despite reflecting a rise in Eurosceptic ministers the real focus of the reshuffle is the increase in the number of female members of the cabinet. It seems unlikely that Mr Cameron will meet his 2010 election pledge of having a third of his cabinet as women, however, this could represent the greatest move to equality in government for some time.

Explaining his decision to step down as foreign secretary Mr Hague said: "By the time of the general election next year, I will have served 26 years in the House of Commons and it will be 20 years since I first joined the cabinet. In government there is a balance to strike between experience on the one hand and the need for renewal on the other, and I informed the prime minister last summer that I would not be a candidate at the next general election.

"Accordingly I am stepping aside as foreign secretary, in order to focus all my efforts on supporting the government in parliament and gaining a Conservative victory in the general election – after four years in which we have transformed Britain's links with emerging economies, significantly expanded our diplomatic network and the promotion of British exports, restored the Foreign Office as a strong institution, and set a course to a reformed European Union and a referendum on our membership of it."

Ahead of official announcements analysts have predicted that  Esther McVey, the employment minister and former breakfast television presenter, Liz Truss, the childcare minister, Nicky Morgan, the women's minister, Amber Rudd, the whip, Anna Soubry, the defence minister, Priti Patel and Margot James, members of the No 10 policy board will all be given key places on Mr Cameron's cabinet.

Mr Cameron is known to have avoided too many significant reshuffles during the government's time in power, preferring instead to promote an idea of stability in his leadership. The change in so many key figures ahead of the general election next year has created some concern among political observers though.

Commenting on a report published today Emma Norris, from the Institute for Government think tank warned that the reshuffle was "ill advised" with so many big policy announcements due before May.

"Any new minister has a big learning curve to climb – and if moved into post in July 2014, not long to climb it. The prime minister needs to balance the desire to refresh with the need to hang on to those who are at the forefront of overseeing his key reforms," she said.

"With the long-awaited reshuffle imminent, there are likely to be several changes among junior ministers. While this may or may not make for good party management, it threatens to disrupt policy implementation at the point when stability and focus are needed most."

Mr Cameron's new cabinet may play well with female voters, concerned about the lack of representation in government, and the increasing number eurosceptics. The loss of so much experience with the replacement of the Tory old guard, a continuing dominance of middle aged, affluent white men and a preponderance of 'yes men' in his inner circle could mean that Mr Cameron's ostensibly cynical electioneering gambit may backfire though as he fails to govern effectively over the coming months.

 

British interests linked to Ukraine agreement

SENIOR British politicians have warned Russia of the serious implications if it continues to instigate unrest ahead of Ukraine's historic EU treaty signing today.

Earlier this week Foreign Secretary William Hague was reported as saying: "We urge Russia to take the necessary actions to stop the flow of arms across the border, to stop supporting illegally armed separatist groups in eastern Ukraine, because in the absence of actions by Russia the case for stronger sanctions from European Union nations will of course become stronger.”

Mr Hague's statement on Wednesday came as Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko prepared to sign the controversial  "Association Agreement and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area", which will commit Ukraine to EU standards, including new customs regulations, quality controls and free market competition.

Speaking ahead of the signing Mr Poroshenko said: "This is what we have fought for over recent months and years. This work will be as difficult and responsible, but I am confident that we will do it very well."

Russian officials have condemned the signing amid concerns that it could be detrimental to trade between the two countries.

Russian Finance Minister Aleksey Ulyukaev told the media that if Ukraine signed the deal it would become a "second rate EU state".

"By signing the Association Agreement the countries must restructure their laws to comply with European standards and open the markets. However, in return, they don’t receive any influence on European legislation or policy,” Mr Ulyukaev said.

Sergey Glazyev, an economic aide to Russian President Putin warned of dire economic consequences if Mr Poroshenko pushed ahead with the treaty.

“For Ukraine, signing the agreement is economic suicide,” said Mr Glazyev.

“There is no doubt that by signing this agreement it will result in an acute devaluation of the hryvnia, an inflation surge and in turn hyperinflation, and a drop in living standards."

British interests in the region have already been damaged by the ongoing crisis, which has seen sanctions imposed on Russia in retaliation for its support of pro-seperatist groups in Ukraine.

While Britain imports a large proportion of its steel and manufacturing resources from Russia it has a large export trade selling the finished products back to its supplier.

Russia is currently the single largest importer of Ukrainian products, roughly totalling the same as the country's entire trade with the 28 nation EU bloc. Threats from Russian authorities to raise tariffs on imprints and restrict business, in an attempt to stem a potential flow of EU goods across the Ukrainian border, could damage an already unstable economic situation within the country.

The treaty means more than just currency for the Ukranian President, however, having already precipitated the overthrow of Mr Poroshenko's predecessor Victor Yanukovych through his failure to sign the deal in February.

 The European commission president, José Manuel Barroso, has praised the decision to go ahead with the signing.

"The agreements, the most ambitious negotiated so far by the European Union, aim to deepen political and economic relations with the EU," said Mr Barroso. "We will need to remain active and vigilant regarding our eastern neighbourhood, in particular after the signature of the association agreements where our responsibility increases and not diminishes."

Whether or not enhanced trade with the EU will be enough to make up for the loss of its neighbour is yet to be seen. What seems certain, however, is that the increased ties to the rest of Europe will provide Mr Poroshenko with much needed backing as he continues to try and restore stability in his divided country.