A shaky year ahead in British politics

AFTER throwing the full weight of party behind its candidate losing half its majority in the Newark by-election must be a call to reality for the Conservatives.

In seeing backing for the party drop, from a previous majority of 16,152 to 7,403, the party must now be asking itself if support in a “safe seat” can be so dramatically eroded then what hope do they have in marginal’s come 2015?

The Tory win may not have radically changed the British political landscape, however, the Newark by-election has put a few creases in the electoral map.

The results come at the same time as the junior coalition partner struggles to retain any political might at all. In Newark the Liberal Democrats were humiliated with a fifth place result which saw them lose the party lose its deposit. Despite hasty attempts to avert any damage and quash dissenters rumoured divisions within the party over Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg’s stewardship have added to the turmoil.

The Queen’s Speech, mostly containing uncontroversial minor policy administration, including a charge on the use of plastic carrier bags, has added yet more fuel to the fire that the coalition government may be out of ideas. With less than 12 months until the British electorate heads to the polls this could spell disaster for the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.

Labour is not faring much better, finishing in third place in the Newark by-election with a fall of 4.65 per cent to 17.68 per cent of the vote overall. For all of Nigel Farage’s bombastic rhetoric about his “people’s army” the United Kingdom Independence Party looks unlikely, based on recent election results, to bring about a change in the political system. A deep sense of apathy has descended upon the voting public, as demonstrated by low voter turnouts in the local and European Union elections.

Both the Conservatives and Labour have attempted to rejuvenate their flagging appeal by bringing in big name American political advisers. The Tories are pinning their hopes on the man who masterminded US President Barack Obama’s 2012 re-election campaign, Jim Messina. Meanwhile Labour has hired another former Obama man, the political heavyweight of David Axelrod.

With little to show in the way of effective policies, divisions in the government, perceived weakness in opposition and UKIP braying from the sidelines it is possible that the British public will be suffering from political fatigue come the 7^th of May next year. What is almost certain though is that unless the government actually governs during the next 11 month and the opposition demonstrate counter-arguments, rather than sneering asides, then all the flash and bang of American political campaigns will not overcome the lack of enthusiasm in the majority of the populace.

In Newark the Conservatives have claimed that they still have the support of voters with a strong majority. What they have failed to mention is that the majority means little when compared in overall numbers; in 2010 27,590 voted for the party, four years later this has plunged to 17,431. If that rate of drop off continues across the board then they may very be throwing a General Election to which no-one turns up.

Far right politics could make EU uncomfortably close

WITH voting having already taken place in the UK and Netherlands and set to continue across Europe until Sunday there is already growing concern that the balance of power will shift to the right.
In Britain the anti-Europe United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) looks almost certain to take the majority of seats. Meanwhile in the Netherlands the far right Freedom Party (PVV) is so certain of victory that leader Geert Wilders is already acting as though his party has won.
Both parties have campaigned on a strong anti immigrant platform playing to the fears of an electorate still recovering from the financial crisis which rocked the world. Claims that immigration has harmed local nationals chances of finding work have played well with many in their respective countries.
In France the National Front Party proclaim “Yes to France, No to Brussels”, while in Hungary the Jobbik party achieved 20 per cent of the vote in April’s parliamentary elections, despite battling accusations of anti-semitism and racism against the ethnic Roma population.
In Britain UKIP’s lead in the EU elections doesn’t necessarily translate into either the local or general elections according to the most recent polling data. It is in Europe that it poses the most serious threat though. A European Parliament controlled by the far right, as seems increasingly likely, is not a parliament which is likely to look favourably on unified interests.
The swing to the right has been partially influenced by high unemployment across Europe and a scapegoat approach by the far right. It is more likely, however, that apathy in the system amongst voters will lead to their victory. Parties, such a UKIP, PVV, Greece’s Golden Dawn et al, have mobilised their voters through impressive rants and strong slogans. A carefully oiled campaign has all but ensured their success over more centrist main stream parties, which have relied on explaining policies and presenting a professional political demeanour.
Behind their smiles and rousing speeches though these parties share a commonality, a lack of sustainable policies. Other than blaming Europe and immigrants for the woes of their respective countries there has been very little substance shown in any arguments. While this may shatter the chances of the far right against more experienced parties across Europe in internal elections it may be just what the voters are looking for in the EU ones.
Many have seen the elections as a form of protest to demonstrate their feelings ahead of parliamentary elections. What they may not be aware of is that according to the Lisbon Treaty the results of the election must be taken into account when picking the next EU President. With the EU Parliament likely to swing to the right the future of Europe those voters who were so keen to leave may not be as free and fair as they have been promised.