The floodgates of independence

AS MONTHS of campaigning finally reach a close it can be easy to forget that the Scottish referendum has been a peaceful affair compared to other struggles for independence taking place at the moment.

Both sides of the debate have worked hard to sway voters to their cause. Both have used words rather than violence and that is what truly marks the battle for independence.

For months Ukraine has been rocked by bloodshed as separatists fought to be allowed self determination. They didn't choose reasoned debate. There were no televised discussions about which currency they should use. Instead there were tanks and guns. Blood in the street has marked this battle not shouting from the podiums.

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko put forward proposals to devolve more powers to Eastern regions. During the Scottish independence campaign British Prime Minister David Cameron offered a similar option to voters if they voted no to leaving the Union. Mr Cameron made the offer to keep Britain together Mr Poroshenko made it to save lives.

Meanwhile Spain is facing a similar threat to its unity as Catalonian politicians push to break away on its own. On Monday the Catalonian regional parliament began setting out the groundwork to allow it to pass a law giving it independence from Spain.

Speaking to the Catalonian regional parliament on Monday Catalan leader Artur Mass said: "This would mean that Spain would effectively bury the 'old Spain' and rediscover that it is a country made up of several nations.

"In an instant, Spain would emerge as a country with an impressive level of democracy, tolerance and one that is capable of listening and resolving what is, above all, a democratic challenge."

In France the Corsicans have watched the Scottish independence referendum with eager eyes. Likewise Flemish speakers in Belgium hungrily wait for their opportunity. 

Greeks in the Epirus region in Albania, Lezigstan, amongst others, in Azerbaijan, throw in groups from Denmark, Croatia, Finland, Georgia, Germany, Czech Republic, Italy, Latvia, Netherlands, Norway, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Sweden, Russia, Slovakia, Switzerland, Latvia, Bosnia and Herzegovina. This doesn't take into account the threats to Turkey by Kurdish separatists or the multitude of campaigns and wars outside continental Europe. 

Even when, after the hard fought battles, people are able to declare their independence it may not be enough. The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus is still trying to gain international recognition despite having been an independent state for forty years. In Kosovo independence, recognised by many in the international community, is still a daily struggle.

The debate over Scottish independence has overshadowed these other campaigns but more than that it has invigorated them. In his burning desire to seperate from the Union and proclaim the independent state of SNP Alex Salmond may have unwittingly led the charge for the greatest shifting of borders since World War Two. What must be hoped now is that as with the Scottish referendum it is done without the bloodshed which has traditionally precipitated the creation of independent states. 

Scots debate turns into brawling debacle

ON MONDAY the leaders of the Scottish referendum campaigns went head to head and showed that the debate has taken a nasty turn.

Rather than holding to a well moderated back and forth of the views Alex Salmond and Alistair Darling's combative styles made it seem more like a drunken brawl in a Glasgow pub.

As has been seen many times in other countries the issue of independence is always going to be a contentious issue. Despite being forty years since the North and South separated there is still a deep rooted feeling of bad blood between some in Cyprus on both sides of the divide. Long after the separation negotiations have still dragged on with promises of resolute being given and then broken.

Despite both leaders claiming they would respect the will of the people based on the tensions on Monday Scotland may be running down a similar road, albeit in this case with less blood shed but also less reason.

Once again which currency an independent Scotland would use was high on the list of topics. Once again no clear answer was provided by Mr Salmond other than that he had three plan B's but didn't want to share them yet. Yes campaigners were vocal in their support of this move on social media, complaining that the No Campaign was too focused on currency and avoiding other key issues. 

As one pro-independence supporter wrote on social media site twitter: @macrae85: "There's a 'Plan A,B,C,D & probably E,but u lot are too thick to even think of that...why dampen u'r powder b4 the talks?"

While another said: @antyjan: "Omg! What is this obsession with currency!? We don't need a plan B! Jeeeez! Is that all the NOs have?"

It was during the cross examination phase, however, that the real passions behind the debate came out as Mr Salmond bludgeoned Mr Darling repeatedly with speeches about the "mandate" of the people. Without effective moderation it quickly dissolved into a shouting match with nobody making any helpful or substantive points.

By the time the moderator finally did step in both men looked bloodied but Alex Salmond had definitely regained his confidence after their last engagement and knew that he had won that nights bare knuckle drag out. A snap ICM poll after the debate bore this out with 71 per cent of those asked saying they thought he had won the debate.

It was in the final moments of the debate that the reality of what may happen in the future took hold for many as both leaders spoke of how they would respect the outcome of the referendum. Mr Salmond even going so far as to say he would ask Mr Darling to join him in the negotiations. From the reactions on social media though it seems that these two men will be in the minority of those shaking hands and making amends. The issue has split families and awakened old tensions, something not easily forgotten nor forgiven. Mr Salmond knows this and knows that his passionate rhetoric does not lend itself to peaceful reconciliation later. As Fevzi Hussein of TRNC human rights group Embargoed tweeted: "He is dying for his William Wallace moment..." The risk now is that he gets it.

Scots debate needs to be about more than sterling

WITH less than four weeks to go until Scots can decide on the future of the United Kingdom tonight's debate must be about more than just currency.

When Alex Salmond and Alistair Darling last confronted one another it was Mr Darling who many viewers saw as victorious. Despite a hesitant start his pounding away at the question of what would be a "plan B" if Scotland did not get the pound left Mr Salmond bloodied and shaken.

In the proceeding weeks Mr Salmond has continued to fail spectacularly in being able to answer the sterling question. Instead he, and others from the Yes Campaign, has belligerently stuck to his argument that the pound is as much Scotland's as it is England's. With so many questions still unanswered it would appear an irrelevance to attempt to make Mr Salmond see sense and state his back up plan, when he has continued to refuse to do so for so long.

It would seem, however, as another childish tug of war over the pound will be the opening gambit as the first area to debate will be the economy. Instead though it may make sense to discuss the recent revelations that the pro-independence campaign may have vastly overestimated the amount of oil reserves they are relying on. Oil economist and current SNP leader Mr Salmond has argued that his forecasts are correct and an independent Scotland would receive in the region of 7bn of whatever currency seemed appropriate. Meanwhile the head of the Aberdeen based Scottish oil services firm Wood Group, Sir Ian Wood, has warned that actual figures could be half this. If this is the case then it raises serious questions about how an independent Scotland would be sustainable. With Mr Salmond relying on all his predicted oil revenue, and more, to finance his health and education plans any indication that they might not be accurate needs addressing.

"The offshore oil and gas industry cannot figure significantly in Scotland's medium-term economic calculations," Wood said. "Young voters in the referendum will only be in their 40s when they will see the significant rundown in the Scottish offshore oil and gas sector, and the serious implications for our economy, jobs and public services."

Based on the pre-released debate format the two campaign leaders will be limited to what they can discuss by four compartmentalised areas of debate, each started off with a question from the audience. Following the discussion over the economy will be "Scotland at home", "Scotland in the world" before ending on the most important question "what happens after the vote?" 

With a recent YouGov poll giving topline figures of 38% for the Yes Campaign, a three percent increase on previous poll, and 51% to the No Campaign, a four percent drop, it still looks likely that it will be the undecided voters who have the most impact on the referendum. As Mr Darling has already pointed out Mr Salmond is continuing to play to nationalist voters who have already made up their minds. For many this debate will be a crucial factor in their decision making process and as such a clear answer on what will happen after the vote may be the game changer for both sides, not who keeps the pound. 

A sterling performance Darling

THE battle for Scottish Independence entered a new phase as the leaders of the two sides went head to head last night in a televised debate.

Despite initial problems for viewers outside Scotland watching the debate online they were still able to witness Alistair Darling land some heavy body blows to the Yes Campaign.

Ahead of the debate analysts had predicted that Yes campaign leader and Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond would be the clear victor of the exchange. By the closing bell, however, and despite no knockout punches by either side, a snap ICM poll gave the win to Mr Darling.

Of 512 people surveyed 51 per cent believed that the Better Together leader had made the most persuasive arguments of the night.

With most of the debate focusing on the economic ramifications of an independent Scotland it was Mr Darling's persistent questioning as to what Mr Salmond's "plan b" would be in the event a currency union did not materialise which set the tone for the evening.

Refusing to be drawn on his options Mr Salmond started to appear more evasive and confused over the situation as Mr Darling continued to land hits.

In a dubious attempt to rally the SNP leader struck back at claims the No Campaign had said drivers in an independent Scotland would be forced to drive on the right. Mr Darling looked shocked that a joke made by MP Andy Burnham was being used as a serious argument.

Tweeting during the debate Mr Burnham weighed in by saying: "Can't believe a weak joke I once made about Scotland driving on right has actually been quoted by Salmond. He's lost the plot."

If Mr Darling thought that he had seen the end of the nonsensical arguments he was in for a further shock as he was challenged on claims that the No Campaign had said that Scotland would be unable to defend itself from an extraterrestrial attack.

Undaunted by the strange line he was facing the former chancellor pressed on with his questioning over what would happen to the currency saying: "Any eight-year-old can tell you the flag of a country, the capital of a country and its currency.

"I presume the flag is the saltire, I assume our capital will still be Edinburgh, but you can't tell us what currency we will have. What is an eight-year-old going to make of that?"

While the audience noticeably turned against Mr Salmond, with one Yes supporter saying he was disappointed that the First Minister was failing to address real issues, moderator Bernard Ponsonby became increasing aggressive in his questioning of Mr Darling as a balance.

Many of those watching the debate have been left with more questions than answers in the run up to September 18th following the face off. The key focus on the economy left little time to cover the wide range of additional issues which loom on the horizon. 

Whether or not there was an all out winner one thing was clear, Yes Campaign's hubris in claiming that Mr Salmond would route Mr Darling was unfounded. As Labour MP for Paisley & Renfrewshire South and Shadow Foreign Secretary Douglas Alexander tweeted: "Alex Salmond thought this debate would be his Bannockburn...it's turning out to be his Waterloo."

Debate night for Scotland

TONIGHT Scotland will get its first chance to see the leaders of the two campaigns, for and against independence, go head to head.

The televised debate between pro-independence leader Alex Salmond and the Better Together Campaign head Alistair Darling has been pitched as a key moment in the build up to September's referendum vote.

Political debates have long been an important part of politics. In America they are viewed as crucial for the success of Presidential campaigns. In Britain, however, they are still watched with a degree of scepticism by the voting public.

The televised debates between David Cameron, Gordon Brown and Nick Clegg prior to the 2010 General election were hailed by some observers as the reason for the astonishing gains made by the Liberal Democrats.

Despite Mr Clegg's presence and personality in the debates, however, he has failed to meet expectations, leading to the party's relegation to fourth place in opinion polls.

Both Mr Salmond and Mr Darling will be hoping that their performances tonight have a longer lasting impact.

The campaign has heated up in recent weeks as both sides have accused the other of misleading the electorate over the repercussions of Scotland leaving the Union. Tonight they will be able to confront each other face to face. Many will be hoping that they are able to make sense of an increasingly confused economic agenda amongst other things.

Blair Jenkins, chief executive of the Yes Scotland Campaign, has been reported as saying: "Viewers will get the chance to hear why decisions made on Scotland's future should be taken here in Scotland.

"Our experience is that most undecided voters choose Yes when they hear both sides of the debate, and therefore we believe the mass TV audience will benefit our positive campaign.

'We also believe that the No campaign have a problem with both the negativity of their message, and the unpopularity of their messengers."

Meanwhile Better Together campaign director Blair McDougall has lowered expectations of the debate, claiming that the real discussions will take place off air.

"The referendum debate isn't confined to TV studios. It is taking place in conversations between friends and family across Scotland.

"The biggest debate is taking place on the doorsteps, around kitchen tables and in workplaces across the country.

"And the more people talk about what leaving the UK would mean for our schools and hospitals, the more they are saying no thanks to separation."

The danger of the debates, as proven by the 2010 election, is that the policies are lost amid the personalities of the participants. Mr Salmond potentially holds the winning hand in this case. His bombastic and larger than life approach may appeal more to swing voters than Mr Darling's more academic reasoned arguments. Whatever the pro's and con's debated it could all come down to how well they are put across, rather than the actual merits of, the facts and opinions which persuade voters. With recent polls putting the difference between two camps in single digits the only thing certain for tonight is that both campaigns still have everything to play for.

The games are over but Scotland's race goes on

As the cheers subsided and the music went quiet the 2014 Commonwealth Games were brought to a close.

While it may be the final for the athletes it seems like it may have been just the reinvigorating starting pistol the pro-independence movement was looking for ahead of September's referendum. After the incredible displays of athleticism, the pomp and ceremony and the demonstration that amid much concern otherwise they could pull it off Scottish Nationalism is riding high. 

This has been the problem with the Scottish National Party's campaign from the start though. It has been about flash in the pan soundbites, putting on a good show for the spectators, without really thinking too much about what will happen in the long term.

Now the games are over the future of the new arenas and stadiums is far from certain. Plans have been made and promises given but experience has taught us that until the deal is done there is still much which can go wrong.

The same applies for Alex Salmond's campaign. Hitting out at the Better Together Campaign as being too negative makes for a brilliant spectacle, and may just be right. Without being able to give a positive long term argument to counter it though Mr Salmond is left floundering.

A key debate has been about whether staying in, or leaving, the Union will make the Scots better off. It is a complex debate which relies on numerous economic factors. What proportion of the United Kingdom debt will Scotland be responsible for? Will it be based on per capita income, proportion of funds allocated from Westminster or one of a number of other ways which are being debated? 

Neither side can categorically say and this means that no-one will truly know until long after the votes have been counted which side will come out on top.

Another bone of contention has been the pound. On one side there is Mr Salmond claiming that no matter what politicians in Westminster say Scotland will remain in the sterling union. On the other hand there are Prime Minister and leader of the Conservatives David Cameron, Deputy Prime Minister and leader of the Liberal Democrats Nick Clegg, Labour leader Ed Milliband, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osbourne, Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls and a multitude of Bank of England and City economists saying it will never happen. 

If Mr Salmond is to succeed in his quest he is going to have to do more than rely on vague promises and forcing to people to watch Braveheart and listen to Flower of Scotland until their ears pop.

As has been evidenced in Cyprus and Crimea amongst others the right to self determination is both a strong motivator and a complex issue. It takes serious debate and a clear recognition of all the arguments. That hasn't really started to happen in Scotland and time is running out for it to do so. 

The Commonwealth games have shown that the country can pull of something spectacular when required. What is yet to be seen is if it can handle the more time consuming and necessary day to day mundanity of being an independent state.