The joy of conference season

IT'S AUTUMN and for the British political establishment that can mean only one thing party conference season. 

As politicians and party members meet for the last time before next year's General Election MP's are feeling the pressure to reassure people that they will be fighting fit for the campaigns ahead of them. The conferences are politicians opportunity to try out new ideas before committing to them in their manifestos. It is the equivalent of Paris or London fashion week for political junkies as they get a peek at the upcoming policies on offer. 

This year has been no different as the key parties look back at the mistakes and successes of the past year and lay out their future plans. 

For Prime Minister David Cameron it is an opportunity for back slapping over the debatable success of the Scottish referendum. For Labour it was a chance to prove that they had moved forward from its defeat at the last General Election and was ready for a new future. For the Liberal Democrats it is a time to demonstrate that they still exist, something which hasn't always been obvious since it joined the coalition government. 

As always though it is the crackpots and cranks which lead the way and monopolise the news cycle, which could explain the amount of coverage given to the UKIP party conference despite it having no MP's in Parliament.

It also a chance for individual politicians to flex their muscles and attempt to stand out from the crowd. It was no surprise to many that London Mayor Boris Johnson was among the forefront of this particular group.

In true Boris style he managed to someone try and stabilise the Conservatives and reaffirm his support for Mr Cameron while stealthily positioning himself as the saviour of the party.

Speaking at a fringe meeting ahead of his formal speech on Tuesday Mr Johnson demonstrated this ability with his usual panache.

"It is only if the great conservative family unites and we stop Ed Miliband seizing back control of this country that we will be able to deliver the referendum that this country wants and deserves," Johnson told activists.

"I say to the quitters, the splitters and the 'Kippers, there is only one party that can sort out the European issue."

"When you look at the vast leads that this party enjoys on the key questions of the economy and prime ministerial qualities, I think they (voters) will come over in droves," he said.

Being entirely honest though, while there is a certain interest in hearing plans for the future and debating which ones may actually make the grade, it is for the blunders which many will get the most entertainment. Staying true to form Labour leader Ed Milliband provided the greatest faux par so far by forgetting to mention the deficit in his speech, after all who would think the economy would be an important point.

With the Tories suffering body blows from defections and resignations, Labour trying to persuade people that Mr Milliband isn't completely incompetent, the Liberal Democrats pleading for someone to throw them a life ring and UKIP posturing on its overblown ego if the conference season is a good opening to the political season then the election campaign should be interesting to watch at the very least.

The West needs Iran against IS

AMID the chaos of the Islamic State assault on the Middle East the meeting of Britain and Iranian leaders offers a moment of historic potential.

The meeting in New York between Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and British Prime Minister David Cameron will be the first time that leaders of the two countries have held official meetings since 1979. 

For the millions of people under constant threat in Iraq and Syria the news of potential cooperation between the state, once considered one of the most dangerous in the world, and the rest of the allies opposing the threat of the IS the news cannot come soon enough.

Hundreds of thousands of refugees are flooding into Turkey as the fighting in Syria heats up and the first time since the start of the conflict American airstrikes have been used against IS forces in Syria. It is clear that the battle against the group is entering a dangerous new phase, far beyond that of the murder of western hostages.

At the weekend former British Prime Minister, and current Middle East Peace Envoy, Tony Blair released a 6500 word article on his Faith Foundation website calling for a ground incursion against fighters in Iraq and Syria. 

Laying out a seven point plan to combat the threat of global extremism Mr Blair makes repeated attempts to link unrest in China with a common problem of extremist Islam in the Middle East. As such he argues that it is only through joining with China that the West can show they are not the only ones fighting rising fundamentalism. His plan hinges on demonstrating that it is a global battle against such groups.

Mr Blair missed talking about how much more successful this plan would have been if it involved Iran in operations. Instead he did call for arguments about human rights in Egypt to be quietened down as we link arms to fight against terrorists. 

Working with Iran is only contentious due to historically imbedded ideals. Relations are already thawing and while talks on nuclear programmes have not met desired results for either side they are still continuing.

Potential cooperation has become all the more important as Turkish involvement in the fight against the state remains understandably cool. Unlike the West Turkey must look at the terrible prospect of IS success in the region. 

For Turkey the fight against IS has long term consequences no matter the outcome. Clashes with Kurds at the weekend are yet more evidence of the tenuous position its government is in. 

For the West arming and supporting Kurdish fighters seems a way of avoiding placing its own ground troops in harms way. For Turkey, however, it poses long term security implications as Kurds demand more autonomy from Ankara.

By bringing Iran into the battle all out Turkish involvement may be avoided while still demonstrating that this is a war not against Islam but against evil. 

Referendum sees Scotland stay

WHILE Scottish unionists plan for the future after defeat over independence Prime Minister David Cameron has promised an English parliament along with devolution.

The result was called after the No lead became unassailable, despite not all of the 32 Scottish councils having called their results. 

With approximately 55 per cent of people voting in favour of remaining part of the United Kingdom, against 45 per cent in favour of independence, the vote was not as close as many had predicted based upon recent polls.  

Scotland's First Minister, and leader of the pro-independence Yes campaign, Alex Salmond, has acknowledged the defeat: "It is important to say that our referendum was an agreed and consented process and Scotland has by a majority decided not at this stage to become an independent country.

"I accept that verdict of the people and I call on all of Scotland to follow suit in accepting the democratic verdict of the people of Scotland."

Meanwhile his former opponent, leader of the No Campaign Alistair Darling, hailed the victory and called upon Scots to work together to heal the divisions in the country.

"It is a momentous result for Scotland and also for the United Kingdom as a whole," he said.

Adding that the result "reaffirmed all that we have in common and the bonds that tie us together", adding: "Let them never be broken."

With the result still a lot closer than many in Westminster would have preferred Mr Cameron will be under pressure to keep to his promises of further devolution of powers to Scotland. 

The proposals made in the dying days of the No Campaign have caused widespread concern among English, Welsh and Irish voters who feel that too much has been sacrificed to keep the union together. Amongst the fears that many have is that Scotland will have too much control over England while being able to deal with their own affairs. 

Mr Salmond has made it clear that despite his side losing the fight has not ended and he wants to ensure that Mr Cameron doesn't back away from his devolution promises.

He told supporters: "The unionist parties made vows late in the campaign to devolve more powers to Scotland.

"Scotland will expect these to be honoured in rapid course - as a reminder, we have been promised a second reading of a Scotland Bill by March 27 next year.

"Not just the 1.6 million Scots who voted for independence will demand that timetable is followed but all Scots who participated in this referendum will demand that timetable is followed."

"Today of all days as we bring Scotland together, let us not dwell on the distance we have fallen short, let us dwell on the distance we have travelled and have confidence the movement is abroad in Scotland that will take this nation forward and we shall go forward as one nation."

Mr Darling appeared to back Mr Salmond's calls for devolution to be pushed forward. During his victory speech the former chancellor said: "More than 85% of the Scottish population has voted. People who were disengaged from politics have turned out in large numbers.

"While they have voted on the constitution, that was not the only or perhaps the major issue that drove them to the polls.

"Every political party must listen to their cry for change, which could be echoed in every part of our United Kingdom but had this opportunity to express itself in Scotland."

Speaking shortly after 7am this morning Mr Cameron spoke of how he was passionate about the country staying together and that what was important now was doing what was right for all countries in the union.

During the course of his speech Mr Cameron made it clear that he would look at creating an English parliament to decide English laws in an shake up of the entire political structure of the union.

Making it clear that he felt the debate for independence had been settled for now Mr Cameron said: "The people of Scotland have spoken and it is a clear result. They have kept our country of four nations together and like millions of other people I am delighted." Adding that now what was needed was a new and fair settlement" for not just Scotland, but also England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

While the battle to keep Scotland in the Union may have ended for now the fight for further Scottish powers begins. With Scotland likely to get substantial new autonomy it is the 'English question' which could turn out to be the bloodier battle for Mr Cameron. 

The floodgates of independence

AS MONTHS of campaigning finally reach a close it can be easy to forget that the Scottish referendum has been a peaceful affair compared to other struggles for independence taking place at the moment.

Both sides of the debate have worked hard to sway voters to their cause. Both have used words rather than violence and that is what truly marks the battle for independence.

For months Ukraine has been rocked by bloodshed as separatists fought to be allowed self determination. They didn't choose reasoned debate. There were no televised discussions about which currency they should use. Instead there were tanks and guns. Blood in the street has marked this battle not shouting from the podiums.

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko put forward proposals to devolve more powers to Eastern regions. During the Scottish independence campaign British Prime Minister David Cameron offered a similar option to voters if they voted no to leaving the Union. Mr Cameron made the offer to keep Britain together Mr Poroshenko made it to save lives.

Meanwhile Spain is facing a similar threat to its unity as Catalonian politicians push to break away on its own. On Monday the Catalonian regional parliament began setting out the groundwork to allow it to pass a law giving it independence from Spain.

Speaking to the Catalonian regional parliament on Monday Catalan leader Artur Mass said: "This would mean that Spain would effectively bury the 'old Spain' and rediscover that it is a country made up of several nations.

"In an instant, Spain would emerge as a country with an impressive level of democracy, tolerance and one that is capable of listening and resolving what is, above all, a democratic challenge."

In France the Corsicans have watched the Scottish independence referendum with eager eyes. Likewise Flemish speakers in Belgium hungrily wait for their opportunity. 

Greeks in the Epirus region in Albania, Lezigstan, amongst others, in Azerbaijan, throw in groups from Denmark, Croatia, Finland, Georgia, Germany, Czech Republic, Italy, Latvia, Netherlands, Norway, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Sweden, Russia, Slovakia, Switzerland, Latvia, Bosnia and Herzegovina. This doesn't take into account the threats to Turkey by Kurdish separatists or the multitude of campaigns and wars outside continental Europe. 

Even when, after the hard fought battles, people are able to declare their independence it may not be enough. The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus is still trying to gain international recognition despite having been an independent state for forty years. In Kosovo independence, recognised by many in the international community, is still a daily struggle.

The debate over Scottish independence has overshadowed these other campaigns but more than that it has invigorated them. In his burning desire to seperate from the Union and proclaim the independent state of SNP Alex Salmond may have unwittingly led the charge for the greatest shifting of borders since World War Two. What must be hoped now is that as with the Scottish referendum it is done without the bloodshed which has traditionally precipitated the creation of independent states. 

Passion not politics will decide Scotland's future

IN A SIGN that the pressure is building the leaders of the three main parties will travel to Scotland today to promote the better together campaign.

Forgoing Prime Minister Questions David Cameron, Ed Milliband and Nick Clegg are hoping that by providing a united front they will sway undecided voters to their side.

With eight days to go until the referendum the trio may find that it is too little too late, particularly as in an attempt not to alienate current supporters they will not be appearing on the same platform. Instead the 'united front' will be more of a three pronged attack as they travel to different parts of the country to give impassioned pleas to Scots to remain in the United Kingdom.

In a joint statement yesterday Messrs Cameron, Milliband and Clegg stressed that keeping Scotland in the union was their priority.

"That's why all of us are agreed the right place for us to be tomorrow is in Scotland, not at prime minister's questions in Westminster.

"We want to be listening and talking to voters about the huge choices they face. Our message to the Scottish people will be simple: 'We want you to stay.'"

With recent polls showing the two sides level and the Yes campaign still gaining momentum this last ditch attempt to play on the passions and emotions of voters may not be enough to stave off a split next week though.

Leader of the Yes Campaign Alex Salmond has called the move a sign that the No campaign is panicking as the threat of Scottish independence looms large on the horizon.

 "'I relish David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg coming to Scotland - collectively, they are the least trusted Westminster leaders ever, and this day trip will galvanise the 'Yes' vote.

"No-one believes their panicked pledges - it is a phoney timetable for measly powers. A 'Yes' vote delivers a real timetable for the full powers that Scotland needs."

He added: "The No side have lost their poll lead, and people are switching directly over to Yes - if David Cameron thinks he is the answer to the No campaign's disintegration disarray, let him put his case to the test in a head-to-head debate."

The recent news from polling results will not be adding to the confidence of the No campaign. Having already thrown Gordon Brown into the fight in a desperate bid to appeal to core labour voters they are now showing that they have started to realise that this campaign will be won on emotions rather than logic.

Where the campaign has failed is that it has tried to combat Mr Salmond's passionate patriotic propaganda with rational arguments, most notably about currency. This is not going to be a vote based on the head though. When people vote on independence it will be with their hearts. For months cries of "Freedom" and "Bannockburn" have resonated far more than "the pound" and "taxes". As both sides enter the final leg one day of passion may not be close to enough to save this troubled marriage.

ISIS aren't just another terror threat

BRITISH Prime Minister David Cameron has issued a stark warning that the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has planned six terrorist attacks in Europe.

His warnings come as sources close to the security services revealed that they have identified the insurgent known as Jihadi John, believed to be responsible for the murders of American journalists James Foley and Stephen Sutloff.

In a statement to MP's Mr Cameron said: "The point I would make even today to the British people is: be in no doubt about the threat that so-called Islamic State poses to us. We have already seen something like six planned attacks in the countries of the European Union from [Isis], including of course that appalling attack in the Brussels Jewish museum, where innocent people were killed. That flows directly from this organisation."

While ISIS, which is also known as Islamic State (IS) and Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), may be planning attacks against the West it would be far too simple to think of them as just another terrorist organisation.

ISIS may have started out as an offshoot from Al-Queda, however, it has now morphed into something all the more dangerous and insidious.

"This is not a terrorism problem anymore,” says Jessica Lewis, an expert on ISIS at the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington think tank. “This is an army on the move in Iraq and Syria, and they are taking terrain.”

"We are using the word encircle,” Lewis tells TIME. “They have shadow governments in and around Baghdad, and they have an aspirational goal to govern. I don’t know whether they want to control Baghdad, or if they want to destroy the functions of the Iraqi state, but either way the outcome will be disastrous for Iraq.”

ISIS's metamorphosis creates an issue in the way in which the British government, and nations as a whole, need to combat them. Traditional methods of dealing with a terrorist threat has involved cutting off supply and removing leadership. In the case of ISIS these are unlikely to work though. Due to the territory it has taken and the armaments it continues to capture it has essentially become self sustaining in terms of supply. While it has a powerful leader in the form of  Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi it is increasingly clear that his removal would have little impact on the long term effectiveness of the group with a replacement likely waiting in the wings. 

The British government has already confirmed that it will supply arms to Kurdish fighters and the Iraqi government waging a war against the spread of ISIS.

The Prime Minister has said: “I have always said we would respond positively to requests from them for the direct supply and we are now prepared to do that and so will be providing them with arms, as the Germans and others will.

“Also with allies, we think it’s right to step up our training and mentoring efforts and so we’ve said we would be willing if they would like to train a battalion of Peshmerga fighters because they are doing such a vital job.”

As the conflict continues though more may need to be done. While another military intervention in the Middle East is less than palatable it may become necessary as the group becomes viewed as an occupying army rather than a terrorist group. 

Green's looking at new direction

THE season of political party conferences gets underway today with the Green Party starting its annual roundup.

During the course of its four day conference party stalwarts are expected to signal a change of direction from its previous focus on environmental issues. Instead leader, and former Guardian journalist, Natalie Bennett aims to position the party to the left of Labour as an effective alternative to current parties.

Speaking at the People's march this week she said: "We marched from Bedford to Luton, there was massive support. We don't believe there is any place for the profit motive in the NHS, the internal market with NHS services competing is a failed policy - we would keep it public owned and free.

"We are really the only opposition to three parties who all back the same political and economic system, which is not working. We are proposing real change," she added.

As part of its new agenda there is expected to be more discussion about plans for a £10 minimum wage to be imposed across the board, regardless of age or circumstances.

Bennett told the Guardian: "We need to offer people hope for the future – a living wage, secure employment and no more zero-hours contracts.

"Under our plan no one would be paid less than £10 an hour in 2020," she said. "It is a scandal that under the coalition government the number of workers earning less than the living wage has risen by a staggering 50%. It makes a mockery of David Cameron's 2010 statement that a living wage is 'an idea whose time has come'."

The change of direction reflects the impact which the coverage received by the United Kingdom Independence Party during the European Elections had on the party.

At the time Green members, who have long stated that they are the fourth political party, complained that the UKIP media exposure was unwarranted and damaging to its own campaign.

"A difference between the Greens and UKIP is that we are not a one-person party, we are team and we have three women - Caroline Lucas in the House of Commons and Jenny Jones in the House of Lords and myself - all happy to work together, not competing," said Bennett.

Separately adding: "We got 6.6 per cent of the vote in May and I would be very happy if we got the same percentage of political coverage in the national media - but we are seeing our figures going up anyway,"

It is a change which poses risks for the party, which is polling below the Liberal Democrats, as they may alienate core voters with drastic and seemingly ill conceived policies.

Promising to impose a wealth tax of 1% on top earners will appeal to some voters, however, it seems unlikely to provide the necessary capital injection needed to fulfil additional plans for benefits and the health service. Meanwhile as the three main parties have already discovered raising the minimum wage dramatically would have detrimental impact on small business owners unable to meet the higher outlay, thereby driving up prices, the living wage and creating a potential inflationary spiral.

Re-branding themselves as a left wing party may seem like a good idea in an increasingly politically apathetic era. Without clear solutions though they could find that they have moved too far away from the policies which have brought voters to them in the past. 

Summit is adapt or die moment for NATO

ESCALATING chaos in Iraq and Syria and rising tensions in Ukraine will dominate discussions among world leaders at the NATO conference in Wales.

Not since the closing days of the Cold War have the stakes been so high for the NATO participants as they attempt to determine if the alliance is ready to face the challenges of the 21st century.

British Prime Minister David Cameron will join NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen in leading the talks taking place over the course of two days.

Speaking ahead of the summit Mr Cameron said: "It's hard to think of a Nato summit coming at a more important time for our alliance.

"We see the appalling actions of Russia in eastern Ukraine. We see the appalling scenes in Iraq and Syria and the rise of this so-called Islamic Caliphate and its dreadful brutality in executing the American hostage we saw overnight.

"And in this dangerous and difficult world NATO has an absolutely key role in providing our collective security, and that's what the next two days are going to be all about."

Nato Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen gave his views to journalists: "In today's world we are, so to speak, surrounded by an arc of crisis.

"To the east, to the southeast, to the south - and at this summit we will address the whole range of security challenges and improve Nato's ability to act swiftly if needed."

The dynamics of global powers have shifted since world leaders last met in the UK as part of a NATO summit. When last gathered on British shores in 1990 Margaret Thatcher was Prime Minister and the Cold War, against the alliances old sparring partner Russia, was drawing to a close. There was a need to rethink NATO's operational concept and evolve to face a changing world. 

With the crisis in Ukraine reaching new levels, amid reports of Russian interference, and the dangers of allowing terrorist groups such as Islamic State to take hold of large areas of territory NATO's role has become crucial once again for international 

 stability.

A 2013 brief from the Atlantic Council warned, “The world is changing rapidly, and if NATO does not adapt with foresight for this new era, then it will very likely disintegrate.”

This summit needs to answer the question of whether the group is prepared to adapt, or if as the brief warns it will disintegrate amid bickering and internal divisions.

In a jointly written article for the Times Mr Cameron and American President Barack Obama laid out their plans for the future: "With Russia trying to force a sovereign state to abandon its right to democracy at the barrel of a gun, we should support Ukraine's right to determine its own democratic future and continue our efforts to enhance Ukrainian capabilities," they wrote.

"We must use our military to ensure a persistent presence in eastern Europe, making clear to Russia that we will always uphold our... commitments to collective self-defence.

"And we must back this up with a multi-national rapid response force, composed of land, air, maritime and special forces, that could deploy anywhere in the world at very short notice."

The world will now be watching to see if old animosities and competing agendas can be set aside as they once were decades ago to fulfil the future promise of not just NATO but global peace and security.

A threat to journalists is a threat to freedom

BRITISH Prime Minister David Cameron is set to chair a meeting of the government's emergency response committee COBRA in the aftermath of the brutal murder of another journalist.

A video purporting to show the beheading of 31-year-old American journalist Stephen Sotloff has created anger across the world. It follows the video released last month of the killing of fellow journalist James Foley.

Mr Cameron released a statement following the release of the video:  “I’ve just seen the news. It’s an absolutely disgusting and despicable act and I will be making a statement later.”

At the end of the video the masked terrorist warned that a British journalist would be next unless the United Kingdom stays out of the battle in Iraq and Syria against the group, which calls itself the Islamic State.

In the video entitled "A second message to America" the man, believed to be the murderer of Mr Foley, threatens to continue killing unless the United States ceases airstrikes against IS terrorists in Iraq.

"I'm back, Obama, and I'm back because of your arrogant foreign policy toward the Islamic State ... despite our serious warnings," the fighter says. "So just as your missiles continue to strike our people, our knife will continue to strike the necks of your people."

The video highlights the risks to foreign correspondents posed by terrorist groups. By utilising social media outlets the group has been able to maximise the impact of the killings has had, and subsequently made them seem more attractive to terrorist organisations.

Michelle Stanistreet, National Union of Journalists general secretary, released a statement in a August in which she warned of the dangers faced by journalists around the world.

"This summer's events in the Middle East, Ukraine and Africa have produced a dangerous and lethal climate for foreign correspondents and journalists in the field reporting on bloody conflicts and for the local journalists recording events in such dangerous territory. It is deeply alarming to see that journalists are becoming direct targets and their lives are being put at risk...

"It is a simple fact that freedom of the press and free expression are not possible where journalists face extreme violence for doing their job."

Playing on public opinion and feelings of horror allows the criminal gangs spreading bloodshed to feel that they are able to prevent governments from intervening to prevent further substantial losses of life.

It is the bravery of journalists such as Mr Sotloff and Foley who refuse to be cowed which undermines their insidious aims. Through the threat of death many more are still operating, reporting the news and bringing the publics attention to the very acts which the killers want to be allowed to continue. 

Terror laws create division

DESPITE only returning from summer recess on Monday the British coalition government is already mired in controversy and disputes with proposed anti-terror laws.

Prime Minister David Cameron has come into conflict with Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg and civil liberties groups over plans to tackle extremist elements in the UK.

The proposals come in the wake of revelations that approximately 500 Britons have travelled to Syria to join with the fundamentalist Islamic State organisation. 

Speaking to MP's on Monday Mr Cameron set out his commitment to the new laws: "It is abhorrent that people who declare their allegiance elsewhere can return to the United Kingdom and pose a threat to our national security.

"We are clear in principle that what we need is a targeted, discretionary power to allow us to exclude British nationals from the UK."

Civil liberties groups and MP's have expressed reservations over the issue amid fears that the far reaching policies could be used to curtail human rights.

Former Attorney General Dominic Grieve warned that some of the concepts in the proposed legislation would be a "mistake".

"I do share concerns that have been expressed that the suggestion British nationals, however horribly they may be alleged to have behaved, should be prevented from returning to this country. Not only does it offend principles of international law, it would actually offend basic principles of our own common law as well," he said.

Among critics from within the Conservative Liberal Democrat coalition is Sir Menzies Campbell who told BBC Radio 4's The World This Weekend: "I think it's rather difficult and it might well constitute illegality. To render citizens stateless is regarded as illegal in international law.

"To render them stateless temporarily, which seems to me the purpose of what's being proposed, can also I think be described as illegal.

"At the very least it's the kind of question that will be tested here in our own courts and perhaps also in the European Court of Human Rights."

The row has reinvigorated the debate over freedoms within the UK which were addressed last year following the detention of journalist David Miranda. At the time the National Union of Journalists released a statement warning of the impact upon the freedom of the press and democracy.

Michelle Stanistreet, NUJ general secretary, said:

"The shocking detention of David Miranda for the crime of being the partner of a respected investigative journalist points to the growing abuse of so-called anti-terror laws in the UK...

"This is not an isolated problem. The NUJ believes that journalists are coming under more scrutiny and surveillance, being stopped at borders and their work interfered with, simply for doing their job."

If passed Mr Cameron's plans to protect Britain against suspected terrorists could undermine the very values which he hopes to defend. For those travelling to conflict zones, whether for charitable or journalistic purposes, this could be inherently concerning. 

To combat extremism Mr Cameron needs to realise that by creating yet more feelings of isolation and separation within communities he is only magnifying the problem.