Monday 27 July 2015

A terrorist by any other name

IT HAS become apparent in recent weeks, if it wasn't already clear enough, that in the fight against international terrorism Turkey is caught between a rock and a hard place.
On one side there is the so called Islamic State (IS), known throughout the world as a terror group which has spread across Syria and Iraq with close ties to groups within Yemen, Nigeria and Somalia, where a terror attack on Sunday by one of its affiliates Al Shabaab destroyed one of the key hotels for journalists, diplomats and expats in the capital of Mogadishu.
On the other is Turkey's long running enemy the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK). Since 1984 the campaign for an independent state launched by the PKK has left approximately 40,000 dead, most recently with two Turkish police officers last week.
Where Turkey faces a serious issue however is how these two terrorist groups are perceived beyond its boundaries. Kurdish fighters in Iraq are proving to be the front line of combat operations against IS, while Turkey has repeatedly refused to commit ground forces to the battle. Many believe that the Kurds importance in the battle, and the support for their semi-autonomous state in Iraq, have given a renewed credence among international players to demands for an independent state in Turkey.
In response to this dual threat Turkey called a meeting of NATO allies to discuss operations to protect itself from further attacks.
Ankara may find support limited among its allies though. Accusations have already been levelled at the government for allegedly using airstrikes in Iraq as a cover for also attacking Kurdish units. Recent reports from the area have suggested that Turkish tanks may have deliberately fired across the border into Iraq targeting Kurdish units.
For many Western nations the threat from IS is an overwhelming fear and they are prepared to forge the dirtiest of alliances to combat it, while also keeping their hands as clean as possible by allowing any else to carry out ground offensives on their behalf.
With a startling lack of understanding about the harm which the PKK has caused to Turkey, and the threat it poses to the country's long term security, it seems likely that many NATO countries will prefer to obfuscate and leave Turkey trapped between two evils rather than risking a fighting ally.
Turkey's resistance, not completely unreasonably, to see a difference between two terror groups threatening its sovereignty may place it add odds with the self interests of states looking for an easy end to the IS conflict.

Tuesday 7 July 2015

Another final countdown for Greece

AFTER months of wrangling, recriminations and negotiations Greece has being given its final deadline by Eurozone ministers to pay up or get out.
Following Sunday's referendum, which saw millions of Greeks flock to the polls to vote Oxi, or No, to austerity measures demanded by the Eurozone countries it was clear that the long awaited end was nigh. Tuesday's meeting of Eurozone ministers merely confirmed what the markets had already suspected.
Final deadlines for the Greek government have become something akin to a Rolling Stones farewell tour, we have seen them before and stopped believing the flyers. This time, however, it seems almost certain that the Greeks will have to make some drastic decisions or genuinely risk Grexit.
Following the failure in Tuesday of either side of this ongoing saga to reach a conclusion European Union President, and Prime Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk warned that unless Greek officials presented a genuine and workable proposal to stay in the euro by Friday morning it would face bancruptcy.
The deadline comes ahead of am emergency meeting of all EU leaders On Sunday to discuss the possibility of Greece's exit  from the Eurozone. While this exit may not necessarily mean leaving the EU Sunday's meeting shows how seriously its possible exit from the Eurozone is being seen by member states both in and out of the single currency and its potential for Europe as a whole.
A bankrupt country within the EU would pose a risk for the bloc as a whole,  not just the Eurozone. Greek history shows a country where financial insecurity rapidly turns to domestic insecurity. Riots against austerity measures precipitated the rise of Syriza, yet by the standards of Greece's own reasonably recent history these were mild issues compared to Military Juntas and dictatorships. For European Ministers on Sunday the question of a destabilising financial crisis on one of its members and what it will mean for the security of the bloc as a whole will be a real issue.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has already made it clear that Greek debt will not be forgiven. As the holder of by far the largest single portion of Greek debt, both as a contributor to European bailouts and domestic loans, Germany may hold the balance of Greece's future. France, which holds the second largest portion, wants a solution, however President Hollande is unlikely to push against the formidable Mrs Merkel too hard on this issue if he feels that the stakes become too much.
A possibility may be for a restructuring of Greek debt alowing for a longer period of repayments at lower levels. The International Monetary Fund has pushed for this form of a solution, having already had its debts defaulted on however this seems to be more focused on the IMF desperately wanting any chance of recouping its losses than supporting Greece.
For now the sword of Damacles hangs perilously over Greece. The thread which holds it is the new Greek Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos. Already seen as more willing to negotiate than his predecessor and a safer hand on the economy Mr Tsakalotos' first week will be a trying one.