Monday 25 August 2014

Scots debate needs to be about more than sterling

WITH less than four weeks to go until Scots can decide on the future of the United Kingdom tonight's debate must be about more than just currency.
When Alex Salmond and Alistair Darling last confronted one another it was Mr Darling who many viewers saw as victorious. Despite a hesitant start his pounding away at the question of what would be a "plan B" if Scotland did not get the pound left Mr Salmond bloodied and shaken.
In the proceeding weeks Mr Salmond has continued to fail spectacularly in being able to answer the sterling question. Instead he, and others from the Yes Campaign, has belligerently stuck to his argument that the pound is as much Scotland's as it is England's. With so many questions still unanswered it would appear an irrelevance to attempt to make Mr Salmond see sense and state his back up plan, when he has continued to refuse to do so for so long.
It would seem, however, as another childish tug of war over the pound will be the opening gambit as the first area to debate will be the economy. Instead though it may make sense to discuss the recent revelations that the pro-independence campaign may have vastly overestimated the amount of oil reserves they are relying on. Oil economist and current SNP leader Mr Salmond has argued that his forecasts are correct and an independent Scotland would receive in the region of 7bn of whatever currency seemed appropriate. Meanwhile the head of the Aberdeen based Scottish oil services firm Wood Group, Sir Ian Wood, has warned that actual figures could be half this. If this is the case then it raises serious questions about how an independent Scotland would be sustainable. With Mr Salmond relying on all his predicted oil revenue, and more, to finance his health and education plans any indication that they might not be accurate needs addressing.
"The offshore oil and gas industry cannot figure significantly in Scotland's medium-term economic calculations," Wood said. "Young voters in the referendum will only be in their 40s when they will see the significant rundown in the Scottish offshore oil and gas sector, and the serious implications for our economy, jobs and public services."
Based on the pre-released debate format the two campaign leaders will be limited to what they can discuss by four compartmentalised areas of debate, each started off with a question from the audience. Following the discussion over the economy will be "Scotland at home", "Scotland in the world" before ending on the most important question "what happens after the vote?" 
With a recent YouGov poll giving topline figures of 38% for the Yes Campaign, a three percent increase on previous poll, and 51% to the No Campaign, a four percent drop, it still looks likely that it will be the undecided voters who have the most impact on the referendum. As Mr Darling has already pointed out Mr Salmond is continuing to play to nationalist voters who have already made up their minds. For many this debate will be a crucial factor in their decision making process and as such a clear answer on what will happen after the vote may be the game changer for both sides, not who keeps the pound. 

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