The ties that bind could become the rope that hangs

On June 23rd the electorate in Britain will go to the polls to decide the country’s future, or lack thereof, in the European Union.  Already the main story is about which Conservative heavyweights will back their leader’s play and fight to stay in Europe, and which ones will join the campaign to get out.  With all the infighting the actual hard facts and scary truths of the EU referendum stand a good chance of being missed.
Britain is no longer “Great” in the way that the leave campaign would like people to think. We don’t have an empire anymore and no matter how much the man in the street may want one we aren’t going to again. Europe provides us with the best possible outcome in an imperfect world to maintain at least someone dominance in international affairs, as well as relevance.
Trade with the EU counts for approximately 45% of Britain’s total exports and 53% of its imports come from the bloc, based on 2014 figures.  The amount of finance generated by trading with other countries outside the EU pales into insignificance. Leaving the EU will not change the fact that we still need to trade with it, all it will mean is that we have to pay higher rates to do so and have no say in the tariffs and regulations in place which monitor it. British companies will still have to meet EU regulations, however, this time they won’t be able to have a say in what those regulations actually are, inevitably leading to a tiered system which will create immeasurable damage, particularly for small to medium sized enterprises.
There are those who claim that we can cover the trade deficit by increasing exports to non-EU states. While this may seem like a nice idea on paper the practicality is that it will fail. The majority of arrangements we have in place with countries outside of the European Union are based, at least tacitly, on the idea that Britain will act as a gateway to the rest of Europe. An easy option for trading with the whole so to speak. The exogenous impact of leaving Europe is incalculable, not because it doesn’t matter but because it matters so much. Britain would be economically crippled.
The same goes for the financial sector. London acts as a useful node for business not despite its ties to Europe but because of them. France is already punching to have a greater say in global economic affairs and it is not in the least unrealistic to see a shift in dominance from the City to Paris should the UK up and leave.
Then there is the question of security. Out campaigning Works and Pensions Secretary Ian Duncan Smith has claimed that to remain in Europe puts Britain at ever greater risk of a Paris style attack due to open borders. As Britain will always have at least one back door to Europe in Ireland this is a moot point all on its own. Add in the fact that the security arrangements created by our ties to Europe would be weakened and it quickly becomes clear that it is obfuscation at best, lying at worst. Mumbai is not a member of the EU bloc and that didn’t prevent attacks against the city.
The European union is far from perfect it is however here to stay no matter how much the “Out Campaign” may want it to be otherwise. For expats it provides a measure of security which they will not be afforded upon Brexit and for those living in the country it is essential for economic success and security. To think that leaving will mean that we are no longer tied is inconceivable. It just means that the ties which bind us will become the rope which hangs us.