AS TENSIONS continue to run high following yesterday's referendums in Eastern Ukraine international observers have warned of the potential for civil war in the country.
With reports this morning of Ukrainian military forces preparing to resume operations in the city of Slavyansk this may not be so far fetched. Governments across Europe have joined with America to condemn the referrendum as illegal and pledged to support authorities in Kiev. Even the pro-seperatists greatest ally, the government of Russian President Vladimir Putin, called for the vote to be postponed to allow the situation to de-escalate.
While the West has continued to threaten further sanctions against Russia it is possible that it may have been the only one suggesting a sensible solution.
The issue is not that regions of Eastern Ukraine may split away from the country, nor even that they may wish to join Russia. The crucial factor is the speed at which they are doing it.
In the United Kingdom the thorny issue of Scottish independence is set to be resolved on September 18th. Groups on both sides of the debate have had months to put forward their opinions.Even the most ardent Scottish nationalists accept that there are complex issues involved in creating a seperate country. The economic implications alone are enough to baffle some of the most educated in the debate and need careful analysis.
In Donetsk, and other Eastern regions, there has not been time for the electorate to fully understand what a call for independence may mean. There has not even been enough time to ensure that the system for voting was set up to be impartial and effective.
Yesterday's referendum highlighted how disorganised the pro-seperatist movement is. Queues outside hastily contructed polling stations feared that they would not have an opportunity to submit their ballot. Security was compromised as results were intercepted and released before voting had been completed. This is completely aside from the obvious implications of bias, which have been so roundly condemned by the West.
What was needed was time. If, as in Scotland, a true referendum had been arranged for a suitable time in the future the West would have little defence to condemn the decison. Even the counting was conducted at speed, with results released showing 89.07 per cent of the turnout voting in favour of leaving Ukraine.
The pro-seperatists aknowledge that the vote will not be recognised by the international community so its purpose is still in question. With a little more time they may have been able to make a case, and in so doing garnered much needed support outside their own borders and diminished the threat of armed conflict.
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