Thursday, 15 May 2014

Syria's stalemate exposes divisions in international community


DESPITE the best intentions of the Western governments the Syrian stalemate looks set to continue.

Foreign Ministers from Egypt, France, Germany, Italy, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, the UK and the US met today in London in another attempt to find a solution to the civil war in Syria.

"We are of course united in our disgust and anger at what's happening in Syria and the ruthless utter disregard for human life, “ said British Foreign Minister William Hague, adding "We've also agreed unanimously to take further steps to... do everything we can to hold the Assad regime accountable for the terror it is perpetrating."

With the continuing tensions between the West and Russia over the developing situation in Ukraine, however, it seems unlikely that they will be able to reach any lasting resolution to the ongoing crisis.

With Russia’s support necessary for any effective international resolution agreement to bring  a lasting peace between the Syrian government and pro-democracy militia current events make it seem unlikely.

Russian Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov called the “Friends of Syria’s” approach “prejudiced and destructive”.

"Unlike some of our Western partners, meeting in London, we work with all Syrian sides, not just with one as if supporting it against the other," Mr Bogdanov told reporters from Russian news agency Interfax.

Without a unified international presence and strong stance by the United Nations it is unlikely that anything will change in the Syrian dynamic.

Retaking Homs has been hailed by supporters of Syrian President Assad ahead of elections in June as a sign that the regime is winning in the three year civil war which has left 150,000 dead.

The relinquishing of Homs is symbolic only though. The rebels have been given an opportunity to regroup their forces, placing them in a stronger position to continue to fight against Assad’s regime, without their most battle hardened fighters confined in the besieged city.

So long as Russia and the West resume old cold war animosities the chances of anything other than a stalemate are limited.

Bashar Al-Assad is guaranteed to win the Presidential elections in June but if the rest of the country does not recognise them then they will have no effect.

"Out of today's meeting, every facet of what can be done is going to be ramped up - every facet. That includes political effort. It includes aid to the opposition. It includes economic efforts, sanctions,” claimed US Secretary of State john Kerry. With Syria already aware that they are facing sanctions, in excess of those it already has in place, these are likely to have little effect though.

Without a combined effort and the international community putting aside its own agenda Syria’s civil war will continue ad infinitum.

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