British interests linked to Ukraine agreement

SENIOR British politicians have warned Russia of the serious implications if it continues to instigate unrest ahead of Ukraine's historic EU treaty signing today.

Earlier this week Foreign Secretary William Hague was reported as saying: "We urge Russia to take the necessary actions to stop the flow of arms across the border, to stop supporting illegally armed separatist groups in eastern Ukraine, because in the absence of actions by Russia the case for stronger sanctions from European Union nations will of course become stronger.”

Mr Hague's statement on Wednesday came as Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko prepared to sign the controversial  "Association Agreement and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area", which will commit Ukraine to EU standards, including new customs regulations, quality controls and free market competition.

Speaking ahead of the signing Mr Poroshenko said: "This is what we have fought for over recent months and years. This work will be as difficult and responsible, but I am confident that we will do it very well."

Russian officials have condemned the signing amid concerns that it could be detrimental to trade between the two countries.

Russian Finance Minister Aleksey Ulyukaev told the media that if Ukraine signed the deal it would become a "second rate EU state".

"By signing the Association Agreement the countries must restructure their laws to comply with European standards and open the markets. However, in return, they don’t receive any influence on European legislation or policy,” Mr Ulyukaev said.

Sergey Glazyev, an economic aide to Russian President Putin warned of dire economic consequences if Mr Poroshenko pushed ahead with the treaty.

“For Ukraine, signing the agreement is economic suicide,” said Mr Glazyev.

“There is no doubt that by signing this agreement it will result in an acute devaluation of the hryvnia, an inflation surge and in turn hyperinflation, and a drop in living standards."

British interests in the region have already been damaged by the ongoing crisis, which has seen sanctions imposed on Russia in retaliation for its support of pro-seperatist groups in Ukraine.

While Britain imports a large proportion of its steel and manufacturing resources from Russia it has a large export trade selling the finished products back to its supplier.

Russia is currently the single largest importer of Ukrainian products, roughly totalling the same as the country's entire trade with the 28 nation EU bloc. Threats from Russian authorities to raise tariffs on imprints and restrict business, in an attempt to stem a potential flow of EU goods across the Ukrainian border, could damage an already unstable economic situation within the country.

The treaty means more than just currency for the Ukranian President, however, having already precipitated the overthrow of Mr Poroshenko's predecessor Victor Yanukovych through his failure to sign the deal in February.

 The European commission president, José Manuel Barroso, has praised the decision to go ahead with the signing.

"The agreements, the most ambitious negotiated so far by the European Union, aim to deepen political and economic relations with the EU," said Mr Barroso. "We will need to remain active and vigilant regarding our eastern neighbourhood, in particular after the signature of the association agreements where our responsibility increases and not diminishes."

Whether or not enhanced trade with the EU will be enough to make up for the loss of its neighbour is yet to be seen. What seems certain, however, is that the increased ties to the rest of Europe will provide Mr Poroshenko with much needed backing as he continues to try and restore stability in his divided country.

Ukraine's tough road to peace

THE decision of Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko to sign a controversial European Union bill could see the crisis in the country enter a new stage.

The failure of former President Victor Yanukovych to ratify the deal was one of the primary instigators leading to his overthrow in February.

The bill is widely unpopular amongst pro-Russian supporters who want to see closer ties with their powerful neighbour, something they fear increased links with the EU would prevent.

President Poroshenko's decision comes along with his announcement of plans to bring the burgeoning civil war in Ukraine to a close.

Announcing a 14 point peace plan the new leader is stepping up attempts to bring the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk back under government control.  

Under his proposals a 'peace corridor' would be set up to allow those who had disarmed to leave the embattled regions, changes to the constitution to decentralise power, an amnesty for anyone "without blood on their hands" and, perhaps most controversially, the closure of the Russian-Ukrainian border.

Without support from Russian President Vladimir Putin, however, it seems unlikely that any moves would help calm the current situation.

World leaders have called on President Putin to help de-escalate tensions and support the path to peace. The pleas may fail to have much affect though as reports warn of an increased build up of Russian forces along the border and Russian tanks being used to support the pro-separatist movement.

NATO Chief Anders Ramussen has warned Russia that any attempt to intervene in the crisis could lead to tougher international sanctions against the country.

Elsewhere in the country a spokesman from the Organisation of Security and Cooperation in Europe has confirmed that they have been in contact with two teams who were abducted in the Eastern region last month. Any chance of a peaceful solution to the situation which meets with international approval may well hinge on the safe return of the OSCE observers.

The United Nations currently estimates that 356 people, including 257 civilians, have been killed in fighting since the 7th May.

President Poroshenko may find that his attempts to bring stability to the country and prevent further bloodshed will be a hard fought battle. His signing of the EU bill on the 27th of June is a strong statement but may be meaningless if he cannot show that a peaceful resolution can be reached with his opponents. 

 

Syria's stalemate exposes divisions in international community

DESPITE the best intentions of the Western governments the Syrian stalemate looks set to continue.

Foreign Ministers from Egypt, France, Germany, Italy, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, the UK and the US met today in London in another attempt to find a solution to the civil war in Syria.

"We are of course united in our disgust and anger at what's happening in Syria and the ruthless utter disregard for human life, “ said British Foreign Minister William Hague, adding "We've also agreed unanimously to take further steps to... do everything we can to hold the Assad regime accountable for the terror it is perpetrating."

With the continuing tensions between the West and Russia over the developing situation in Ukraine, however, it seems unlikely that they will be able to reach any lasting resolution to the ongoing crisis.

With Russia’s support necessary for any effective international resolution agreement to bring  a lasting peace between the Syrian government and pro-democracy militia current events make it seem unlikely.

Russian Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov called the “Friends of Syria’s” approach “prejudiced and destructive”.

"Unlike some of our Western partners, meeting in London, we work with all Syrian sides, not just with one as if supporting it against the other," Mr Bogdanov told reporters from Russian news agency Interfax.

Without a unified international presence and strong stance by the United Nations it is unlikely that anything will change in the Syrian dynamic.

Retaking Homs has been hailed by supporters of Syrian President Assad ahead of elections in June as a sign that the regime is winning in the three year civil war which has left 150,000 dead.

The relinquishing of Homs is symbolic only though. The rebels have been given an opportunity to regroup their forces, placing them in a stronger position to continue to fight against Assad’s regime, without their most battle hardened fighters confined in the besieged city.

So long as Russia and the West resume old cold war animosities the chances of anything other than a stalemate are limited.

Bashar Al-Assad is guaranteed to win the Presidential elections in June but if the rest of the country does not recognise them then they will have no effect.

"Out of today's meeting, every facet of what can be done is going to be ramped up - every facet. That includes political effort. It includes aid to the opposition. It includes economic efforts, sanctions,” claimed US Secretary of State john Kerry. With Syria already aware that they are facing sanctions, in excess of those it already has in place, these are likely to have little effect though.

Without a combined effort and the international community putting aside its own agenda Syria’s civil war will continue ad infinitum.

Ukrainian referendum takes deadly turn

As Eastern Ukrainians in the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk vote on their future the world watches on and tensions run high. Reports are already coming in of clashes in Krasnoarmeysk leaving one dead and others injured as National Guardsmen open fire.

According to reports from journalists on the ground the bloodshed took place after guardsmen shut down voting in the referendum which could see the region split from Ukraine. The shooting has already started to raise questions about how much control the Ukrainian government in Kiev has over the pro-Ukrainian forces in the region.

Monika Kalinowska,@mkalinowskaa, who was visiting the area, reported on Twitter that she had witnessed the shootings from the Guardsmen. “Before the shooting took place in Krasnoarmeysk people were negotiating with the ‘national guards in the adm building,” she tweeted prior, adding “they have told people that they are here peacefully and were asking for cigarettes, next thing we know they are starting shooting.”

With the voting stations now closed and the counting started there are hopes in the region that the situation will start to calm tonight ahead of tomorrow’s announcement, however, with Ukrainian officials reasserting their stance that the referendums are illegal these hopes seem slim.

“This is a step into the abyss for the regions,” warned Ukrainian acting President Oleksandr Turchynov yesterday (Saturday).

Meanwhile the escalation of fighting in the region comes as reports state that 400 Blackwater Mercenaries arrived in the area to support pro-Ukrainian forces. Blackwater has been surrounded by controversy following accusations of killing civilians while deployed in Iraq.  Western governments’, including America, Britain, France and Germany, have condemned the referendums as illegal and threatened harsh sanctions against Russia if they are allowed to be recognised.

Not everyone in the international community is taking the same stance. Venezuelan authorities have already warned that they will not back any efforts in Ukraine. In a statement released to the media officials from the Foreign Ministry said that they would “not recognise as legal a government that emerged as a result of a state coup. In view of the regrettable developments of events in Ukraine, the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela confirms that it rejects violent processes that, with the support of the United States and NATO, led to the overthrow of the government, jeopardising the peace and the unity of the Ukrainian people as well as the stability of the entire Eurasian region.”

Until the votes are counted and the results announced tomorrow (Monday) both sides of the debate will be left powerless to do anything more than take part in a war of words. For the people on the ground the situation may take a far more deadly turn.

The fall of a superpower

Has America’s role as the global moderator of all that is right been compromised beyond repair? That is the question which must surely be asked in the wake of recent events involving the world’s foremost superpower.

Rather than demonstrating its power America’s announcement on Tuesday that it would send a team to help find more than 200 missing Nigerian schoolgirls proved that it no longer has the teeth to act when needed.

The world has known since April 14th that the terrorist group Boko Haram kidnapped the girls from their school. The group, whose name translates loosely as “Western education is a sin”, was known to have been trading the girls into marriage and shipping them across the border. Yet the world, and in particular America, sat back and did nothing.

Nigeria’s own government, ostensibly fearful of reprisal from this increasingly powerful group, did little to take action, preferring to hope that the loss of so many young women would go unnoticed. They are fighting a rear guard action against extremism though. They are under constant fear of what the next atrocity will be. If allowing more than 200 young girls to be taken could be seen as a price to keep things from escalating then apparently it was a price they were willing to pay.

The West, however, is under no such constraints. America has time and again pledged its strength to root out extremism and fight for a moral cause. Why is it therefore that it did nothing until its hand was forced by a statement released by the group?

The same story has been repeated time and again. With Syria President Obama clearly stated that chemical weapons were a red line which could not be crossed. To do so would bring the wrath of the world down upon the Syrian government like so much biblical thunder. Chemical weapons have been used though and America and the West have done nothing. Refugees flood across the borders and many more are trapped inside besieged cities, waiting for the next dose of chemicals to fall upon them, and the West does nothing.

In Ukraine America made it clear that they would support the newly formed government and would take strong action if Russia was seen to be instigating aggression. Pro-separatist groups roam the streets, many equipped with Russian weaponry. Reports come in on a near daily basis of supposed Russian interference in the region. Crimea fell with Russian support and its people left Ukraine. Yet the West does nothing more than threaten sanctions which have already been demonstrated beyond a doubt not to work.

America, Britain, France, Germany et al cannot wage war on every country which they deem to have gone against their moral principles. The West cannot be the world’s police force. Imposing a different culture and identity on a people through force has already been proven to fail in Afghanistan and Iraq. To keep pretending, however, that the world has not changed, that the threat of force without the will to back it up and that the ability to do so even exists undermines any hope that a more rational approach to tackling increasing global unrest can ever be found.