Lesson learned from Tea Party, UKIP threat not passed

A RECENT poll has seen support for the United Kingdom Independence Party plummet but, as shown by the American Tea Party, the threat from the far right may not have passed.

For some observers UKIP's fall from grace signals a coming back to senses of the British electorate after the party's staggering gains in the European Elections. What seems more likely is that it is just a hiatus while the anti-immigration, anti-Europe party marshals its resources ahead of next year's general election.

In 2010 analysts in America predicted that they had seen the back of the grass roots right wing Tea Party movement, which had threatened to do irreparable harm to bi-partisan relationships in both congress and the senate. As evidenced by recent election successes for the group this was more wishful thinking than reality. 

The danger in Britain is that the Conservative party follows the mindset the Republican Party had in America and sits back on its laurels believing the danger had passed.

The Guardian/ICM poll has shown Nigel Farage's UKIP dropping seven points in a month from 16% to 9%. The news for other parties though has not been overwhelmingly positive.

Analysing the results Martin Boon, director at ICM research, said: "We used to talk about parties getting themselves through the 'magic' 40% threshold before they would be in serious contention to win, but less than a year before a general election, both the big parties are currently struggling to get themselves into the middle 30s, which, of course, only the Tories managed in 2010."

Part of the problem is that many people are suffering from election fatigue, having been bombarded by political policies for the last few months. The other is that after a flurry of television and radio appearances Mr Farage is now hard at work undermining the European Union. It would be a mistake to think that he, and his party of malcontents, had disappeared from the political landscape though. 

As with the Tea Party UKIP knows that it needs to manage its resources efficiently to ensure it is prepared for the big battles. For now it just needs to wait in wings until it sees an opportunity. 

"This time last year," explained Mr Boon, "UKIP also dropped to a similar extent, from 18% in the ICM/Guardian May 2013 poll to 12% the following June." 

By loading his new cabinet with eurosceptics and taking a harder line in his negotiations with Europe Prime Minister David Cameron may help to keep the UKIP threat at bay. With ten months still to go until the election, however, it would be a mistake to think that we have seen the last of Mr Farage and his entourage.  

A shaky year ahead in British politics

AFTER throwing the full weight of party behind its candidate losing half its majority in the Newark by-election must be a call to reality for the Conservatives.

In seeing backing for the party drop, from a previous majority of 16,152 to 7,403, the party must now be asking itself if support in a “safe seat” can be so dramatically eroded then what hope do they have in marginal’s come 2015?

The Tory win may not have radically changed the British political landscape, however, the Newark by-election has put a few creases in the electoral map.

The results come at the same time as the junior coalition partner struggles to retain any political might at all. In Newark the Liberal Democrats were humiliated with a fifth place result which saw them lose the party lose its deposit. Despite hasty attempts to avert any damage and quash dissenters rumoured divisions within the party over Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg’s stewardship have added to the turmoil.

The Queen’s Speech, mostly containing uncontroversial minor policy administration, including a charge on the use of plastic carrier bags, has added yet more fuel to the fire that the coalition government may be out of ideas. With less than 12 months until the British electorate heads to the polls this could spell disaster for the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.

Labour is not faring much better, finishing in third place in the Newark by-election with a fall of 4.65 per cent to 17.68 per cent of the vote overall. For all of Nigel Farage’s bombastic rhetoric about his “people’s army” the United Kingdom Independence Party looks unlikely, based on recent election results, to bring about a change in the political system. A deep sense of apathy has descended upon the voting public, as demonstrated by low voter turnouts in the local and European Union elections.

Both the Conservatives and Labour have attempted to rejuvenate their flagging appeal by bringing in big name American political advisers. The Tories are pinning their hopes on the man who masterminded US President Barack Obama’s 2012 re-election campaign, Jim Messina. Meanwhile Labour has hired another former Obama man, the political heavyweight of David Axelrod.

With little to show in the way of effective policies, divisions in the government, perceived weakness in opposition and UKIP braying from the sidelines it is possible that the British public will be suffering from political fatigue come the 7^th of May next year. What is almost certain though is that unless the government actually governs during the next 11 month and the opposition demonstrate counter-arguments, rather than sneering asides, then all the flash and bang of American political campaigns will not overcome the lack of enthusiasm in the majority of the populace.

In Newark the Conservatives have claimed that they still have the support of voters with a strong majority. What they have failed to mention is that the majority means little when compared in overall numbers; in 2010 27,590 voted for the party, four years later this has plunged to 17,431. If that rate of drop off continues across the board then they may very be throwing a General Election to which no-one turns up.

Not so much "earthquake" as political tremor

WITH the majority of councils declared a clearer picture has emerged about the new political landscape of Britain
Social media site Twitter was buzzing through the day with news that the United Kingdom Independence Party had made gains in its number of seats across the country. Some news outlets have claimed that UKIP's success has been an "earthquake" in British politics.
Despite the hype however the party's performance has not been the triumph which it has been claimed. While UKIP leader Nigel Farage has been reported as saying that "British politics will never be the same," and are "serious players", the party has failed to take overall control of any of the councils announced. In terms of percentage of the national share of the vote it is also likely to see some sobering news, with projected figures lower than the 23 percentage it achieved in council elections last year.
It had gained 134 seats, at time of writing, to give it an overall total of 155, however, this is still someway behind the clear winners Labour which gained 298 seats giving it 1870.
UKIP's gains may have harmed the Conservative position as they saw 134 seats move away from them, leaving them with 1194. It was Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrat party which suffered the greatest defeat of the day, losing control of 237 seats.
@Otto_English tweeted: "1200 seats declared so far and UKIP have won just over 80. Political earthquake? More like a passing bus. #Elections2014"
Meanwhile supporters of the Green Party, which gained 15 seats, bringing it up to 51, have accused the media of "pandering" to UKIP and ignoring its status as a "national party".
@psyeclipse: "BBC blatantly ignoring Green Party (even though we've just made gains in Bristol). All UKIP. All facism."

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Protest pushes Britain to the right

DESPITE predictions that support for the United Kingdom Independence Party would focus on Europe it has surged ahead in local elections.
Early results have shown the far right anti Europe party gaining 86 seats across the country in the local elections.
The group, which has faced sustained allegations of racism and homophobia, has already claimed that the results are proving "they are here to stay as a political force".
The Conservative Party has fared the worst against UKIP, having already lost 96 seats with more results being announced as the day progresses. Ed Miliband has come under attack from members of his own party as Labour fares little better. Labour MP Graham Stringer has called his party's performance "unforgivably unprofessional" following a number of high profile gaffes by Mr Milliband. The Liberal Democrats have been hardest hit in the local elections. Businesz Secretary Vince Cable admitted that he believed the junior coalition partner would take a "kicking".
Nigel Farage's UKIP had been expected to potentially win the majority of seats in the European Union Elections, however, some analysts had hoped that they would not be as strong in local elections as people focused on policies over personalities.
Twitter has been buzzing as the results have trickled through with some blaming the media for providing overexposure to the anti-immigration party, which had also campaigned on a platform of introducing  a flat tax rate and changing housing allocation policies.
@Janzek "#UKIP #Elections2014 shows what frightening things achieved when media gives 1 individual ridiculously disproportionate amount of coverage."
@kristinabambina: "The amount of seats UKIP has won is pretty terrifying. Has anyone actually read their policies? #essex #Elections2014"
The party's tax plan would see a significant rise for many in the lower pay bands who have supported them.
UKIP's push may have changed the political landscape as more professional parties fear it has gone beyond a protest vote. The swing to the right may be a warning shot across the bows, however, it is not the final volley in the battle for the 2015 General Election. As yet the party has not taken control of any individual council and is still lagging behind the key parties. Based on the figures so far it is unlikely to have a significant impact in obtaining MP's next year, despite its verbosity this morning.


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Lost spirit in politics

WITH polling stations across the country gearing up for a lacklustre turnout tomorrow there is concern that Britain is losing its political spirit.
Thursday's local and European Union elections are expected to be a defining moment for the three main parties, ahead of next year's General Election, as they battle the political encroachment of Nigel Farage's United Kingdom Independence Party.
Apart from a drop to 24.02 per cent in 1999 overall voter turnout to the EU elections has remained relatively stable at the mid to high 30 per cent mark for the last 25 years. Despite being lower than many EU countries the stability of the figure has been used to demonstrate that it is a national malaise about the particular elections, rather than in politics in general. For Britain the EU elections have been seen as something unnecessary and tedious.
As Europe take a more prominent place in the public consciousness, and with local elections taking place on a national level, this may be about to change. A low turnout tomorrow could be indicative of a larger problem with British politics according to some spectators.
For the last decade there has been a gradual rise in the number of spoiled ballot papers being submitted as people use the opportunity to protest against the political establishment. Between EU elections in 2004 and 2009 the number of invalid votes jumped from 1.76 per cent to 3.18 per cent.
The rise of the right wing UKIP has highlighted the growing discontent the public have with their political peers. Part of the driving force of the party's surge to the lead has been an increasing concern about the immigration issue, in large part created by UKIP's own members.
It's growth, however, is being seen by some in the political system as just another sign that the EU elections are used as an outlet for protest, stating that it is the local elections which will give a clearer image of the state of British politics. With UKIP, on 17 per cent, lagging behind the Conservatives and Labour according to the latest ComRes survey they seem unlikely to create a significant shift in the political landscape.
Tomorrow may demonstrate a lack of faith in the system by voters, however, based on the evidence it is unlikely to generate any surprises for the future of the British political spirit.

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Catching up for festive period

Well it’s that time again when we say goodbye to one year and welcome in another and what a year it has been for all of us here in wet and soggy Somerset. Looking back it has seemed like the better half, little bit and I have barely had a chance to stop. First off we celebrated Liz’s Diamond Jubilee, 60 years in the same job and no matter what Charles says she doesn’t look like she has any plans to retire yet.

Everyone threw a big party for her which was all going swimmingly until Philip had to be taken off to hospital, he really hasn’t been well this year.

Sports day went brilliantly, you may have caught some of it yourselves. Cousin Mo really showed his stuff and Jess won gold in her events. Bradley, you remember him he was the one who got the new bike last year, has had a brilliant year in cycling.

It hasn’t been all smooth sailing, well apart from for Ben but enough of sports day for now. Aunty Beeb has been having a few troubles again this year. It looks like Jimmy, he was the one who always smoked those foul cigars and wore too much jewellery, and some of his friends have really gotten out of line. Beeb had tried to keep it out of the press but as Uncle Rupert found out last year that doesn’t work. It turns out that quite a few of the people who belong to their club have being having a spot of bother but we try not to get involved in all that sort of thing.

In a slightly better turn of events Paul finally managed to get most of the squatters out of his father’s house earlier this year, although some of his friends and family weren’t too happy with the decision I can tell you.

Mark’s little internet venture has had a few problems. It seems that some of his investors weren’t too pleased with their payoff. That is just the way this year though, no-one seems to have enough money to around. Then again what’s new about that?

After last year’s holiday debacle in Syria, we checked into it but decided not to go again this year, we thought that a quiet cruise would be nice. Next year I think we are just going to stay at home, it was an absolute disaster. Mind you the captain did seem like a decent enough chap.

I mustn’t forget to tell you the good news it looks like Will and Kate, they were that nice couple I mentioned in last year’s letter, are expecting a baby. It made up for some fiasco earlier in the year when some pics of Kate were doing the rounds we heard.

Anyway that pretty much sums up everything got to crack on with sending out the rest of the cards. That couple we met in America a few years back for instance are still contacting us, apparently he has done well for himself becoming President of something or other, it may have been his golf club for all I know. It amazes me how many people contact you around this time of year with all sorts of info you wouldn’t care about. Anyway bye for now.

All the same on the Western front

Well that’s it, all that money, all that time, all those speeches, adverts and debates and what has changed? Pretty much nothing actually. President Barack Obama is safely in the White House, Governor Mitt Romney is stumbling over his words and Donald Trump is making a ranting fool of himself on twitter, all in all pretty much business as usual it would seem in American politics, from my cynical Brit viewpoint anyway.

I like to try and stay objective when it comes to commenting on breaking events, particularly elections. Once they have been decided though it is a different story. Whether liked or not it cannot be argued that whoever is sitting in the Oval Office has a massive influence over the rest of the world. It is for this reason that I for one was relieved that President Obama won a second term. The thought of Mitt Romney being President has actually left me with sleepless nights. I’ll be fair though I am sure that Governor Romney honestly had the best interests, as he could see them, of the country at heart. Then again I also have to wonder if his comment to “earnestly pray for him [President Obama] and for this great nation," was meant in good faith or just as a sly dig, back to that cynical British attitude again.

If anything has convinced me, however, that it is a far better thing to have a Democrat in charge of one of the most powerful countries in the world than a Republican it has to be Donald Trump’s spectacular political analysis on Twitter.

Tweeting: “We can't let this happen. We should march on Washington and stop this travesty. Our nation is totally divided!” was perhaps not the most balanced response of the evening, and possibly treasonous, but it was by no means Trump’s only one: “This election is a total sham and a travesty. We are not a democracy!” Demonstrating perhaps a slight misunderstanding of what the purpose of the whole election thing was all about and how democracy works.

What was perhaps most surprising about the election though was how unsurprising it really was. During the run up to voting day we have seen pundits predicting that first one side then the other would win a close race. We heard how Hurricane Sandy would influence the vote and how Governor Romney’s showing in the first presidential debate would change the outcome in his favour. At the end of the day, however, what appeared to be demonstrated by several polls was that a large proportion of people had already made their minds up about who they were going to vote for back in September.

The biggest question now is whether or not having secured a second term in a decisive victory President Obama will now be able to work with the Republicans in government to ensure that he can implement some of his proposals.

While President Obama may have pledged that “the best is yet to come” he will have a tough job on his hands to prove this. Donald Trump may not be entirely representative of the Republican Party but there will be those who follow his call not to give “anything to Obama unless he terminates Obamacare.” Essentially he is calling on people in power to block proposals and plans to help the country and rectify its ongoing economic strife is President Obama does not reverse legislation which ensures that everyone has access to medical treatments and people wonder why I despair with hardline Republicans.

The final word on the subject for now should, justly, come from President Obama himself. Delivering his victory speech he addressed not only those who voted for him but also those who oppose his views. He demonstrated once more why he is a global leader and provided at least some hope that he understands the differences in America and wants to find a means by which to heal the divide which the bitter battle this election has been has caused:

 "Democracy in a nation of 300 million can be noisy and messy and complicated. We have our own opinions. Each of us has deeply held beliefs. And when we go through tough times or we make big decisions as a country, it necessarily stirs passions, stirs up controversy. That won't change after tonight. And it shouldn't.

"Despite all our differences, most of us share certain hopes for America's future. ... We want our children to live in America that isn't burdened by debt, that isn't weakened by inequality, that isn't threatened by the destructive power of a warming planet."

"Forward, that's where we need to go. Now, we will disagree, sometimes fiercely about how to get there. As it has for more than two centuries, progress will come in fits and starts, it's not always a straight line, it's not always a smooth path... That common bond is where we must begin."

A passion for politics?

If ever there was an ideal demonstration of the amount of influence the United States of America has over the rest of the world it is undoubtedly the impact which the run up to its election has. The fact that there are more elections going on than just the Presidential one, more candidates that Mitt Romney and Barack Obama, seems to have been missed out of the global enthusiasm.

When America does something it tends to be on a huge scale. Everything is a show, everything is turned into a show. When they are electing their President why would anyone assume that it would be any different?

With the two key candidates racking up something in the region of £2billion dollars, or as Mitt Romney may describe it “pocket money”, it is understandable that they would generate a reasonable amount of interest.

As a Brit the way American elections play out is something which at once amazes me and then amuses me, it is just so different from our own relatively grey and dull affairs. The concept of attack ads for instance is just something which wouldn’t really work in the United Kingdom. It may be that we are just so cynical that we always look at the worst of our politicians but they just wouldn’t have the same impact in this country.

Whereas in America politicians are seen as larger than life symbols of a nation in this country they are seen as somewhat grey and uninspiring for the most part. When American politicians take to the airwaves they are filled with passion. They spout memorable and carefully crafted quotes; they espouse rhetoric worthy of a blockbuster script. When politicians in the UK try something similar it is “I’m a Celebrity...get me out of here” and they get suspended from the party. It just isn’t the same really.

From our perspective across the pond it does seem that Americans vote with a passion which we Brits just cannot seem to muster. If our politicians spent $2 billion on campaigning they would be roundly demonised. Once there may have been a loyalty to the party, a passion for politics, a sense of duty in Britain, once people felt that voting was important. Nowadays, however, it seems at times as though no-one cares anymore, and that includes the politicians we vote for.

In America it can seem to us poor out of touch Brits that any form of election is an opportunity for a pageant. In Britain we are rapidly approaching electing Police and Crime Commissioners and no-one seems to know who the candidates are, let alone what a Police and Crime Commissioner actually does.  There just doesn’t seem to be the passion for politics in Britain that there is in America, perhaps that is why we follow our cousins in America so closely, they get to have the excitement we miss out on and then some.