A Christmas calculation

There is a simplicity to being cynical which cannot be denied. An easy way to sum up human interaction as nothing more than self interest. It is a view which personifies much of economics and which has shaped the world we live in.
Instead of trying to take that leap into the darkness, where we can see that not everything is motivated by greed and desire, we take the path of least resistance. We assume as a species that the actions of others will be to maximise their own gains with no regards to the repercussions on those around them. Logically it falls on each of us to only think of ourselves and try and get the best deal we can before the rest of the world catches up, otherwise generally known as backward induction where you use your knowledge of what the last move will be to work backwards in an attempt to ensure you get the best deal in each round.
The depressing notion of self interest falls down in one key respect though, it fails to take humanity into account.
The last 12 months have seen some of the most devastating scenes in our generation. The mass exodus from Syria, the attacks in France and Tunisia, bombings in Lebanon, wars and terrorism throughout Nigeria, Afghanistan, Iraq, Ukraine, Yemen, Gaza and Israel, Egypt and repeated mass shootings in America are all only a tiny fraction of the pain and misery the world has suffered through.
In the face of such acts of violence and callous disregard for the lives of others the principle of self interest is clear and understandable. Where it is undermined however isn't in the grand headline grabbing actions of a crazed minority. It is in the selfless acts, those who when the first shots were fired didn't run from the chaos but put themselves between the bullets and others. Humanity has shone through as people have fought to retain that glimmer of hope for those who need it most. Those who didn't shut themselves off against the storm but threw their doors open to refugees and those who still strive to do just what they can to make others lives better.
A focus on Game Theory demonstrates that self interest is not always the most profitable approach. By collaborating individuals may not achieve the Parreto optimal strategy, where you cannot become better off without someone else losing out, they can however achieve a dominant strategy, or more simply the best course of action for each player knowing what the other player will do.
Self interest is fine for modelling strategies but it is not realistic when applied to the real world.
At this time of year that feeling of collaboration should be stronger than ever. It is all too easy to see the holiday season as nothing but an excuse for even greater crass commercialisation than usual. For many western high street retailers it is a season where the laws of supply and demand are everything as sales account for approximately 40% of their annual earnings. It is so much more than that though. It is a time when we can think about what really matters. A time of reflection and peace. It is most of all though a time to realise that there is so much more to this world than the maximisation of self interest. If the old economics is to be overturned it won't be through campaigns against capitalism or shouting slogans. It will be about taking a moment from our own selfish ideals and thinking about others. If we act on those thoughts then just imagine the benefit to all.

Inclusion trumps isolation in the war on terror.

The events in Paris have simultaneously brought out moments of the best and worst of humanity in the news. The demonstrations of solidarity throughout the world are incredible and should be supported. Never before has the overuse of red, white and blue neon lighting been so welcomed across the world.

Meanwhile, however, there is a growing feeling of isolationism and hatred which has started to take grip. It is no longer a surprise that Republican Presidential nominees have to take an anti-immigration stance if they want to appeal to the vocal right, what has been something of a surprise is just how vile some of the recent comments have been. When Donald Trump suggests that Muslims should have to sign a register or Ben Carson likens them to rabid dogs and they can still stand a chance at winning the nomination then there is something very wrong with the system.

As easy as it is to ridicule the Republicans and their increasingly isolationist ideas it isn’t just the American system of government which is taking an anti-refugee, anti-immigration stance. Across the world the fear of refugees has been growing and the attacks in France have just helped elevate the rhetoric of the right wing to new heights.

It is easy to explain that we should be helping people who need it. It is pretty obvious to most people that the majority for those who are fleeing for their lives are not planning terrorist attacks. The amount of news coverage has made it clear to the majority of semi educated individuals with an average GCSE reading age that the potential proportion of refugees who may harbour jihadist sympathies is such as small fraction as to be mathematically insignificant. Of course the risk of one individual with a bomb must be taken seriously and sensible measures taken to prevent them. Denying millions of the chance of a safe life away from the bloodshed is not the way.

New housing policies in the UK for example, ensuring that landlords have to get specific documentation and id from potential tenants, will not prevent people running to Britain. It may delay them from finding shelter, however, after living rough for months and spending all of their money getting there is unlikely to deter them for long. What it will do though is start to create isolated communities, communities which are willing to only accept people of the same religion, ethnicity, culture. Instead of protecting the country it allows for a sense of isolation to spread and from there the increased risk of radicalisation.

There are many other policies being suggested across Europe and the West and almost all of them will lead to an increase in the threat of radicalisation. Terrorism fails to flourish when people are educated about multiculturalism. It relies on a feeling of persecution and hatred, it is almost impossible for it to spread in an atmosphere of inclusion and understanding.

If governments are serious about stopping the spread of terrorism then they need to dramatically alter their current mindsets. Of course threats need to be identified and stopped but creating a persecution complex is not the way to do it. Only be promoting genuine understanding and tolerance can terrorism truly be defeated. Although isolating some of the Republican Presidential candidates may not be an entirely bad idea.

The economics show Britain should do more

Despite thousands of refugees dying over the last few months it has taken one heartbreaking picture of a dead child lying abandoned on a beach to make people care. The very same people who were claiming that we shouldn't do anything suddenly switched their views.
While the images of young Aylan Kurdi have prompted a outcry from people who really didn't have a clue when all they could see were statistics, the government's knee jerk response is both irresponsible and dangerous. The pitiful level which it has placed on the number of immigrants allowed into the country, 20,000 by 2020, will not even make a dent in the hundreds of thousands fleeing a war which we are at least partly accountable for. By prioritising certain refugees over others it is likely that families will be ripped apart as they try and save their children. Most importantly though by circumventing the rules for foreign aid and using it domestically to prop up councils the government is saving a penny now only to spend a pound further down the line. The foreign aid budget isn't an ego boost it is a necessary fund which should be used to combat refugee crises at the source and thereby mitigate against a future influx later down the line. Give a man a fish and he will feed himself today. Give him clean water, shelter, security, education and hope and he will feed his family for a lifetime as will his descendants.
That coin you gave to someone sleeping rough to make yourself feel good about how generous you are, this isn't like that. This isn't about handouts as so many on the far right seem to think. This is about building something.
On one side of the argument has been the claim that Britain cannot take anymore refugees. A strange belief that it will create further ghettosiation of specific regions, particularly around London and the South. This claim focuses only on a knee jerk Daily Mailesque reaction to the crisis which fails to accept the statistics and figures covering the crisis.
A well managed programme, such as that being implemented by Germany which accepted 18,000 refugees last weekend, sees family units kept together while also ensuring that no one area becomes saturated.
A carefully drawn up approach allows for thousands more refugees to be allowed into the country, more than that however it actually allows for, over time, a boon to the economy from money being brought in.
A common argument that even when refugees find employment they send money home fails to accept that every sensible study on the issue finds that the amount sent out of the country is minimal when compared to the amount which British citizens, as a whole, take out of the economic flow through savings. It also fails to take into account the fact that per person migrants tend to pay higher rents, money which landlords then put back into the economy. It doesn’t take account of the fact that they still buy food and clothes, in short they live and survive. This money circulates, and for the most part it comes from jobs which British citizens have refused to do, yet which are necessary and provide a foundation for better jobs for others.
As for the argument that migrants cost the government more money than the good hard working British public even a cursory glance at official figures shows how much greater the proportion of Brits living on welfare is compared to migrants, even where data is amended to take into account disparity of population proportion.
Even without this evidence there is one overwhelming fact, people are dying and dying in their thousands. The refugee crisis is no longer about nations and states it is about humanity. As humans it is our duty to help those who need it.